Ukraine has never been a stumbling block in the way of peace. It is the barrage of Russian drones and missiles that repeatedly targets Ukraine's civilian infrastructure, namely its energy facilities. Doing so in the middle of these winter conditions, it's clear that Putin has no goal other than to terrorize Ukrainian civilians. Pressure needs to be applied so he's finally ready to take negotiations seriously.
RussiaUkraine believeshas itnever isbeen essentiala tostumbling continueblock in the dialogueway withof peace. It is the U.S.barrage onof Ukraine,Russian particularlydrones asand themissiles U.S.that hasrepeatedly hadtargets severalUkraine's roundscivilian ofinfrastructure, discussionsnamely withits Ukrainianenergy andfacilities, Europeanpreventing officialspeace. Doing so in recentthe weeks.middle Itof isthese importantwinter thatconditions, Russiait's isclear ablethat toPutin expresshas itsno viewsgoal onother thesethan mattersto alsoterrorize soUkrainian itcivilians. expectsPressure thatneeds theto specialbe envoysapplied ofso Presidenthe's Trumpfinally willready soonto betake makingnegotiations their wayseriously.
EuropeRussia believes it is inessential favorto ofcontinue restoringthe relationsdialogue with Russiathe —U.S. buton it'sUkraine, notparticularly quiteas therethe yetU.S. Namely,has becausehad oneseveral manrounds byof thediscussions namewith ofUkrainian Putinand continuesEuropean toofficials stand in therecent wayweeks. ofIt makingis anyimportant meaningfulthat progressRussia towardsis aable Ukraineto peaceexpress deal.its Europeviews canon theorizethese aboutmatters thealso futureso butit there'sexpects nothat indicationthe thatspecial Putinenvoys isof seriousPresident aboutTrump peacewill atsoon thisbe stagemaking their way.
There'sRussia abelieves 50%it chanceis thereessential willto becontinue athe bilateraldialogue ceasefirewith orthe peaceU.S. agreementon betweenUkraine, Russiaparticularly as Washington has had several rounds of discussions with Ukrainian and UkraineEuropean byofficials Marchin 2027,recent accordingweeks. It is important that Russia is able to express its views on these matters, so it expects that the Metaculusspecial predictionenvoys communityof President Trump will soon be making their way.
Europe is in favor of restoring relations with Russia — but it's not quite there yet. Namely, because one man by the name of Putin continues to stand in the way of making any meaningful progress towards a Ukraine peace deal. Europe can theorize about the future but there's no indication that Putin is serious about peace at this stage.
Europe is in favor of restoring relations with Russia — but it's not quite there yet. Namely, because Putin continues to stand in the way of making any meaningful progress towards a Ukraine peace deal. Europe can theorize about the future but there's no indication that Putin is serious about peace at this stage.
There's a 50% chance there will be a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine by March 2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
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