Gideon Sa’ar hosting Hadera Abera Admassu in Israel' underscores a deliberate push to anchor Red Sea security through reliable regional partners. Israel’s recognition of Somaliland and deepening ties with Ethiopia representreflect strategic necessity in countering jihadist networks and Iranian proxies threateningalong Redvital Seamaritime securityroutes. Somaliland offers a stable, democratic partnerfoothold with functional governance at a critical maritime chokepoint, while Ethiopia'’s longstandinglong-standing cooperation provides regional legitimacy for expandingexpanded counterterrorism operationscoordination across the Horn of Africa.
Israel'sThe Somalilandoptics recognitionof destabilizesIsrael theaccelerating Horn byof violatingAfrica Somalia'sdiplomacy sovereigntycome andinto empoweringsharper al-Shabaabfocus withas aGideon potentSa’ar jihadisthosts narrativeHadera whileAbera riskingAdmassu Palestinianin displacementJerusalem. TheIsrael’s moverecognition fragmentsof regionalSomaliland counterterrorismundermines effortsSomalia’s sovereignty, drawsfuels al-Shabaab’s jihadist narrative, and risks drawing Israel into unresolved civilregional conflicts,. andCloser alignment with Ethiopia prioritizes geopolitical positioning over collective security, fragmenting counterterrorism coordination in a region already strained by proxy rivalries and displacement risks.
There is a 38% chance that state-based conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
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