TrumpRegime-controlled holdsinstitutions maximumwould leveragenot overallow Venezuela'sanyone remainingother Chavistathan leadershipDelcy throughRodríguez credibleto militarytake forceoffice anddespite legalbroad threats.popular Thesupport surgicalfor strikethe provedopposition, Washingtonso canthe decapitateonly therealistic regimepath withoutto bootsstability onin theVenezuela ground,is forcingto Delcywork Rodriguezwith Rodríguez and her circle. toThe becomegood compliantnews puppetsis whothat willTrump followholds ordersmaximum orleverage faceover athem secondthrough strike.credible Thismilitary coerciveforce diplomacyand backedlegal bythreats overwhelming— powerthey giveseither thefollow U.S.orders totalor controlface toa dismantlesecond drug networks, expel foreign adversaries and stabilize Venezuela on American termsstrike.
Though the Trump administration claims that Venezuela is not Iraq 2.0, the actual plan is far from clear and the similarities are striking. Now, like then, the U.S. is promising a limited intervention to temporarily run the country. —As inTrump thehas Middlea Eastlong thatrecord meant years of occupationapparent andgreat permanentachievements disaster.that Ascollapse Trumpupon hascontact neitherwith a legalcomplex basisreality, northis thenation-building publiceffort support to implement his goals in Venezuela,the heWestern mustHemisphere allowis Venezuelanslikely to determinebecome theira own futuredisaster.
TheKeeping legitimateMaduro's democraticdiscredited oppositioninner thatcircle won nearly eight million votes in 2024control is being sidelined while discreditedsidelining Chavistathe operativesdemocratic retainopposition power. Keeping Maduro's inner circle in control creates perverse incentives for looting and instability as theythe ones in office face inevitable electoral defeat. Real stability requires recognizing the actual 2024 election results and facilitating a time-bound transfer to legitimate leadership, not postponing democracy indefinitely under the guise of managed transition.
Venezuela's revolutionary state remains intact and functional despite the illegal abduction of Maduro. The U.S. military operation, while brutal, actually exposed imperialism's weakness by avoiding full invasion due to eight million armed militia members and domestic opposition to war. TheThat Bolivarianthe leadershipcountry's callsleadership has called for negotiation representis a strategic retreat under duress, not capitulation, preserving state power as a base for future struggle.
There's a 42% chance that the U.S. will invade Venezuela before Jan. 20, 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
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