The people of Venezuela will never see any of the up to $3 billion worth of oil as Trump will control the money, especially as the DOGE refund check never came to existence. Even more concerning is that the U.S. has extorted Venezuela for tar-like heavy crude that is expensive and difficult to process — and surely not high-quality — while creating precedent for China to seize critical minerals in its own hemisphere.
This is a brilliant foreign policy that makes Venezuela's corrupt regime-linked interim authorities pay civil restitution for their own wrongdoing, providing short-term funding for a plan to reconstruct the country and benefit the people of Venezuela. Furthermore, this transfer is set to disrupt shipments to China and Russia, further breaking Beijing's influence over Venezuela.
There's a 40% chance that the U.S. will invade Venezuela before Jan. 20, 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
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