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Snapshot 10:Thu, Dec 18, 2025 8:27:04 PM GMT last edited by JoseMoura

Brazil's Lula Set to Veto Bill Reducing Sentences for Coup Convicts

Brazil's Lula Set to Veto Bill Reducing Sentences for Coup Convicts

Above: Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva speaks with journalists in Brasilia on Dec. 18, 2025. Image credit: *** GETTY *** Sergio Lima/AFP/Getty Images

The Spin

TheThis sentencingbill reformoffers billa addressespath excessiveto punishmentsturn forthe minorpage participantson ina thetoxic Januarypolarization 8that eventshas whiledrained maintainingnational accountabilityenergy and allows reconsideration of excessive sentences for centralthose figures.who Thisplayed balancedminor approachroles allowsin the judiciaryevents. toThe reevaluatemeasure disproportionateprovides sentences,judicial enablingflexibility thoseto withreduce lesserpenalties rolesfor toindividuals returnwho home.received Turningdisproportionate thepunishment page onenabling toxicfamilies polarizationto letsreunite while Brazil movemoves forward withwithout newforgetting prioritiesits indemocratic 2026values.

CongressLula cannotis grantright disguised amnestyand tostreet coupmobilizations plottersacross whothe attackedcountry democracy.show Thepublic so-calledsupport Dosimetryfor Billthe drasticallyveto. reducesIt's sentencesoutrageous forthat thoselawmakers convictedhave ofapproved attemptinga tobill overthrowthat thegrants government,disguised allowingamnesty Bolsonaro to servecoup barelyplotters twowho yearssought beforeto houseoverthrow arrestthe insteadgovernment ofand hisabolish 27-yearthe sentence.democratic Streetrule mobilizationsof acrosslaw Brazilin show the peoplecountry rejectin thisa backroom deal that betrays democratic values enshrined in the constitution.

This bill creates nothing new and merely returns power to the same Supreme Court that committed the abuses in the first place. Existing mechanisms for sentence reduction were deliberately ignored, making this legislation a facade that legitimizes political persecution and abandons thousands of families destroyed by the system.

Metaculus Prediction

There's a 50% chance that Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will be reelected as Brazil's president in October 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


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All rights reserved.

Version 6.18.0