Metaculus

At least 1 Nuclear Detonation in War by 2050

Independent

Zelensky says new ‘Trump peace plan’ will be ready in days – but Moscow is already pushing back

Newsweek

A New Kind of War Has Come for NATO—And Russia Has the Upper Hand

Ukraine Claims Full Russia Gas Shutdown After Caspian Sea Drone Strike

Russia outlines response to NATO’s war preparations

Ukrainian losses almost 500,000 this year – Russian MOD

Putin warns that Russia will seek to extend its gains in Ukraine if peace talks fail

U.K. issues ultimatum to Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich to hand Chelsea sale proceeds to Ukraine

Russia Ukraine war latest: Zelensky plays down hopes of peace by Christmas after Putin rejects holiday truce

Revealed: Key details about latest Ukraine peace deal – and the main hurdles Russia keeps putting in the way

The Associated Press

BBC News

Russia Ukraine war: Putin warns West as 'new missile' fired

Kyiv Post

Russia Prepares to Deploy Oreshnik Missile in Belarus to Pressure Europe  Ukraine Foreign Intelligence

TASS

Russias strategic nuclear forces to keep important role of deterring aggressor  Putin

Reuters

Putin Says Western Calls Preparation War With Russia A Lie 2025 12 17

India Today

Putin calls European leaders piglets, warns Russia will take more Ukrainian land

President of Russia

Expanded meeting of the Defence Ministry Board  President of Russia

The Moscow Times

Putin Says Oreshnik Missile Will Be Deployed by End of 2025

Special op, nuclear forces, Oreshnik and Burevestnik: what Putin told defense officials

IN BRIEF: What Putin said about Russia’s new missile, and Moscow’s response to the West

Putin Says Russia ‘Grinding Down’ Ukraine in Brutal War

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Antony Blinken

Jens Stoltenberg

Sergei Ryabkov

Kurt Volker

Alexander Stubb

Michael McCaul

NATO

Mircea Geoan

Michael R. Carpenter

Mark Rutte

Andriy Yermak

Julianne Smith

Robert Fico

Ukraine joining NATO "will never happen."

NATO hasn't "reached the point where it is prepared to offer membership or an invitation to Ukraine."

“As long as I am head of the Slovak government, I will direct the MPs that are under my control... never to agree to Ukraine's joining NATO.”

"We cannot admit Ukraine into NATO immediately."

Ukraine is "fully prepared and able to be a member of NATO."

We will take "concrete steps to bring Ukraine closer to NATO."

"Ukraine's path and bridge towards NATO membership is now irreversible."

"Ukraine is closer to NATO than ever before, and will continue on this path until [it] become[s] a member of our alliance."

"Ukraine will join NATO. It is not a question of if, but of when."

Will Ukraine Join NATO?

Liz Truss

Jake Sullivan

Dmitry Peskov

John Kirby

Daniel DePetris

Mykhailo Podolyak

Petro Poroshenko

Andrey Illarionov

Dmytro Kuleba

David Von Drehle

Oleksiy Reznikov

Sergei Shoigu

Dmitry Gorenburg

Ivan Losev

Aleksey Arestovich

Andrzej Duda

James Stavridis

Dmitry Medvedev

Jason Jay Smart

Beth Knobe

Dmitri Alperovitch

Richard Branson

When Will the Russia-Ukraine War End?

Alexander Lukashenko

William Burns

Fiona Hill

Sergei Markov

Barry Posen

James Acton

Kevin Ryan

Nicolo Fasola

Matthew Bunn

Steven Pifer

Harry Kazianis

Mikhail Kasyanov

Robert Gates

Mitt Romney

Alexey Zaitsev

Pat Buchanan

Nina Khrushcheva

William Alberque

Fabian Hoffmann

Stephen I. Schwartz

Olga Oliker

Ira Helfand

"I think it's extremely unlikely that he [Putin] would move in that [using tactical nuclear weapons] direction in the current conflict."

"I don't see Putin deciding to use a nuclear weapon."

"There are reasons to believe Moscow would not press the nuclear button."

"Though it is unlikely that Russia will use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, the risks are real."

Putin has sent many signals that "he will use battlefield nuclear weapons from his arsenal of 6,000 such weapons to win the war."

"Well, yes, he [Putin] would [launch a nuclear attack]."

Would Putin Detonate Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine?

Russian President Vladimir Putin, addressing a meeting of his country's Defense Ministry on Wednesday, said that the Oreshnik missile system will be placed on combat duty by the end of this year.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, addressing a meeting of his country's Defense Ministry on Wednesday, said that the Oreshnik missile system will be placed on combat duty by the end of this year.

The intermediate-range ballistic missile, capable of carrying nuclear warheads and which Russia says is capable of traveling at speeds of Mach 10, was <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.verity.news/story/2024/putin-confirms-use-of-hypersonic-missile-warns-us-and-uk">first publicly revealed by Putin in November 2024</a> after being used in a strike on a Ukrainian aerospace and defense plant in the city of Dnipro.

The intermediate-range ballistic missile, capable of carrying nuclear warheads and which Russia says is capable of traveling at speeds of Mach 10, was first publicly revealed by Putin in November 2024 after being used in a strike on a Ukrainian aerospace and defense plant in the city of Dnipro.

In Wednesday's address, the Russian leader cast the weapon's deployment into his country's arsenals as playing "a decisive role in deterring aggression and maintaining the global balance of power."

In Wednesday's address, the Russian leader cast the weapon's deployment into his country's arsenals as playing "a decisive role in deterring aggression and maintaining the global balance of power."

Despite the latest announcement, Putin accused European leaders of "whipping up hysteria" by portraying a Russian attack on the continent as inevitable, describing this as "a lie and an irrational narrative," further stating that Russia has always tried to settle disputes and conflicts via diplomatic means.

Despite the latest announcement, Putin accused European leaders of "whipping up hysteria" by portraying a Russian attack on the continent as inevitable, describing this as "a lie and an irrational narrative," further stating that Russia has always tried to settle disputes and conflicts via diplomatic means.

He added that the same was true of the Ukraine conflict, stating that Russia would prefer to settle "the root causes" by diplomacy. "However, if the opposing side and its foreign patrons refuse to engage in substantive dialogue, Russia will achieve the liberation of its historical lands by military means."

He added that the same was true of the Ukraine conflict, stating that Russia would prefer to settle "the root causes" by diplomacy. "However, if the opposing side and its foreign patrons refuse to engage in substantive dialogue, Russia will achieve the liberation of its historical lands by military means."

Putin added: "We welcome nascent progress in our dialogue with the new U.S. administration, which cannot be said of the current leaders of the majority of European countries." While not included in the official transcript, multiple media outlets quoted Putin describing European leaders as "piglets" — or a similar translation — in the course of his remarks.

Putin added: "We welcome nascent progress in our dialogue with the new U.S. administration, which cannot be said of the current leaders of the majority of European countries." While not included in the official transcript, multiple media outlets quoted Putin describing European leaders as "piglets" — or a similar translation — in the course of his remarks.

The entry of the Oreshnik missile into Russia's arsenals is a decisive step in deterring aggression and maintaining the global balance of power. Russia will continue to develop its strategic nuclear capabilities to this end.

The entry of the Oreshnik missile into Russia's arsenals is a decisive step in deterring aggression and maintaining the global balance of power. Russia will continue to develop its strategic nuclear capabilities to this end.

Russia is not only deploying the Oreshnik in its own arsenals but plans to station these nuclear-capable weapons in Belarus as well. By putting these weapons on Europe's doorstep, Putin is continuing his campaign of intimidation in the hopes it will weaken the continent's support of Ukraine.

Russia is not only deploying the Oreshnik in its own arsenals but plans to station these nuclear-capable weapons in Belarus as well. By putting these weapons on Europe's doorstep, Putin is continuing his campaign of intimidation in the hopes it will weaken the continent's support of Ukraine.

There's a 27% chance that a nuclear weapon will be detonated as an act of war by 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

There's a 27% chance that a nuclear weapon will be detonated as an act of war by 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Putin Says Oreshnik Missile to Enter Russia's Arsenals by Year's End

Putin Says Oreshnik Missile to Enter Russia's Arsenals by Year's End

The Spin

Metaculus Prediction

The Controversies

Ryabkov

Smith

Fico

McCaul

Yermak

Blinken

Stubb

Rutte

Stoltenberg

Romney

Stavridis

Pifer

Alberque

Buchanan

Hill

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Putin Says Oreshnik Missile to Enter Russia's Arsenals by Year's End

The Spin

Metaculus Prediction

The Controversies

Ryabkov

Smith

Fico

McCaul

Yermak

Blinken

Stubb

Rutte

Stoltenberg

Romney

Stavridis

Pifer

Alberque

Buchanan

Hill

Go Deeper

Articles on this story

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