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Indian PM Modi Makes First-Ever Visit to Ethiopia

Indian PM Modi Makes First-Ever Visit to Ethiopia

Can Abiy Ahmed’s high-profile welcome for India’s prime minister translate into real gains for Ethiopia, or does the visit distract from the country’s deep-seated political and security challenges?
Indian PM Modi Makes First-Ever Visit to Ethiopia
Above: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi meets with Ethiopian President Abiy Ahmed in Johannesburg on Nov. 22. Image credit: G20 South Africa/Getty Images

The Spin

Ethiopia’s hosting of India’s PM translated into productive talks and concrete agreements. Abiy Ahmed presided over the signing of key pacts on customs cooperation, a data centre and U.N. peacekeeping training with India, underlining Ethiopia’s proactive diplomatic engagement and capacity-building goals. The visit showcased Ethiopia’s agency in shaping partnerships that span trade, technology, security and institutional strengthening, reinforcing the country’s standing on the regional and global stage.

The fanfare around the high-profile visit to Addis Ababa does not hide that Ethiopia is grappling with severe internal turmoil under Abiy Ahmed’s rule. Armed insurgencies continue in Oromia and Amhara, and peace in Tigray remains fragile, with fears of renewed conflict. Human rights abuses and inter-communal violence persist, undermining stability and daily life far from diplomatic photo ops, and turning grand external engagements into distractions from pressing domestic crises.

ThereModi’s isEthiopia stop formed part of a 1broader percentregional chancetour, thatreflecting India’s willpush experienceto expand its geopolitical footprint across West Asia and Africa. Anchored in millennia-old India–Ethiopia ties, the visit links historical legitimacy with present-day strategy. It positions New Delhi as a successfulGlobal coupSouth d'étatpower beforeusing 2040diplomacy, accordingtrade routes and long-term partnerships to theproject Metaculusinfluence, predictiondiversify communityalliances and shape regional connectivity beyond its immediate neighborhood.

Metaculus Prediction

There is a 1% chance that India will experience a successful coup d'état before 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.



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All rights reserved.

Version 6.18.0