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Snapshot 2:Mon, Dec 15, 2025 1:13:08 PM GMT last edited by Joshua

Ukraine Prepared to Give Up NATO Admission in Exchange for Security Guarantees

Zelenskyy: Ukraine Prepared to Give Up NATO AspirationsAdmission in Exchange for Security Guarantees

Ukraine Prepared to Give Up NATO Admission in Exchange for Security Guarantees
Above: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy pictured in London on Dec. 8, 2025. Image credit: Chris Ratcliffe/AFP/Getty Images

The Spin

RepresentativesSuccessful ofpeace thetalks U.S.are anddependent Ukraineon heldZelenskyy's morerealisation thanthat fivehe hoursis offighting talksa onlosing Sundaybattle and amust lotcome ofto progressthe wastable madewith compromise. ThePersonal teamsego discussedcannot sit above the 20-pointnational peaceinterest planof Ukraine, economicand agendasthe andU.S. otherwill issuesnot beforefund agreeinganother forever war. With luck, these talks are finally producing the consensus needed for Trump to continuedeliver discussionsanother onlong-lasting Mondaypeace deal.

DespiteWith U.S.or officialswithout hailingNATO progressmembership, sourcesUkraine's indicatefuture thatas thean talksindependent, weresovereign difficult,nation largelyrelies becauseupon meaningful security guarantees being given by the U.S. officialsand demandedits quickpartners. decisionWithout makingsuch andan refusedagreement toyears dropof theirUkrainian insistencebloodshed thatwill Ukrainebe shouldfor givenothing, upand itsunless ownthese territoryconditions inare themet eastUkraine must continue to fight for its survival.

TheNATO Kremlinmembership ishas notalways beingbeen provideda withprimary updatesexample inof realUkrainian timeand onWestern U.S.-Ukraineaggression talksthat inRussia Berlinhas sought to neutralize. ItAbandonment expectsof tothis bepolicy updatedgoal, bytherefore, U.S.is officials in thistheory respectwelcome oncebut theconditional talkson areNATO completed.membership Onlynot thenbeing willreplaced Russiaby bean ableunsuitable toalternative. provideUnfortunately, ahistory responseshows onthat theZelenskyy's statewords ofcan negotiationsrarely be trusted.

Metaculus Prediction

There's a 50% chance there will be a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine by May 2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


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All rights reserved.

Version 6.18.0