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Snapshot 5:Fri, Dec 12, 2025 2:58:36 PM GMT last edited by Haakan

NATO Chief Warns Russia Could Attack Alliance in 5 Years

NATO Chief Warns Russia Could Attack Alliance in 5 Years

Above: Mark Rutte, NATO's secretary general, spoke at the Munich Security Conference in Berlin on December 11, 2025. Image credit: Krisztian Bocsi/Contributor/Bloomberg via Getty Images

The Spin

Russia hascould no plans to attack NATO andwithin prioritizesfive peaceyears and cooperation.members NATOare officialsalready arein runningharm's anway. orchestratedMoscow fearhas campaignbecome toincreasingly manipulatebrazen theirwith populations,hybrid justifywarfare theirincluding owncyber-attacks, failuresdisinformation and distractdrone fromincursions economicinto disastersallied at homeairspace. AnyDefense attackspending onand Russiaproduction willmust berise metrapidly withnow overwhelmingbecause forcetime usingis everynot capabilityon availableNATO's side.

Russia couldhas no plans to attack NATO withinand fiveprioritizes yearspeace and memberscooperation. areNATO alreadyofficials inare harm'srunning way.an Moscoworchestrated hasfear becomecampaign increasinglyto brazenmanipulate withtheir hybridpopulations, warfarejustify includingtheir cyber-attacks,own disinformationfailures and dronedistract incursionsfrom intoeconomic allieddisasters airspaceat home. DefenseAny spendingattack andon productionRussia mustwill risebe rapidlymet nowwith becauseoverwhelming timeforce isusing notevery oncapability NATO's sideavailable.

Metaculus Prediction

There is a 40% chance that Russia will attack a European NATO member before 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


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All rights reserved.

Version 6.18.0