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Snapshot 6:Wed, Dec 10, 2025 10:08:53 AM GMT last edited by Kani

DR Congo–Rwanda: M23 Advances Days After Trump-Backed Peace Deal

DR Congo–Rwanda: M23 Advances Days After DR Congo-Rwanda signed Trump-backedBacked Peace Deal

Above: Members of the M23 armed group ride in a vehicle formerly belonging to the Armed Forces of the Democratic Republic of Congo (FARDC) while patrolling a street in Goma on January 29, 2025. Image credit: Daniel Buuma/Getty Images

The Spin

The Washington Accords mark a real breakthrough after three decades of stalled diplomacy in the Rwanda-DRC crisis. Even as clashes persist, Trump injected the decisive energy needed to move parties toward binding commitments, securing a durable ceasefire, structured disarmament, monitored refugee returns and regulated access to critical minerals. It is an imperfect yet pivotal start to a long, demanding process that finally offers a credible path to regional stability.

Trump's peace deal was doomed from the start because it failed to address the core issues driving the conflict. The accord ignored the role of militias like M23 and lacked enforcement mechanisms, allowing Rwanda to continue covert support while the DRC maintained hardline positions neither side could back militarily. Without sustained high-level engagement and real consequences for violations, this superficial dealmaking was destined to collapse immediately.

Metaculus Prediction

There is a 60 percent chance that the Democratic Republic of Congo will experience a civil war before 2036, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


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© 2025 Improve the News Foundation. All rights reserved.Version 6.18.0

© 2025 Improve the News Foundation.

All rights reserved.

Version 6.18.0