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Snapshot 5:Wed, Dec 10, 2025 9:04:17 AM GMT last edited by Kani

M23 Advances Days After DR Congo-Rwanda signed Trump-backed Peace Deal

M23 Advances Days After DrDR Congo-Rwanda signed Trump-backed Peace Deal

Above: Members of the M23 armed group ride in a vehicle formerly belonging to the Armed Forces of the Democratic Republic of Congo (FARDC) while patrolling a street in Goma on January 29, 2025. Image credit: Daniel Buuma/Getty Images

The Spin

Trump'sThe peaceWashington dealAccords wasmark doomeda fromreal thebreakthrough startafter becausethree itdecades failedof tostalled addressdiplomacy in the coreRwanda-DRC issuescrisis. drivingEven theas conflict.clashes Thepersist, accordTrump ignoredinjected the roledecisive ofenergy militiasneeded liketo M23move andparties lackedtoward enforcementbinding mechanismscommitments, allowingsecuring Rwandaa todurable continueceasefire, covertstructured supportdisarmament, whilemonitored therefugee DRCreturns maintainedand hardlineregulated positionsaccess neitherto sidecritical couldminerals. backIt militarily.is Withoutan sustainedimperfect high-levelyet engagementpivotal andstart realto consequencesa for violationslong, thisdemanding superficialprocess dealmakingthat wasfinally destinedoffers a credible path to collapseregional immediatelystability.

TheTrump's Washingtonpeace Accordsdeal representwas adoomed genuinefrom breakthroughthe afterstart 30because yearsit of failed attempts to resolveaddress the Rwanda-DRCcore issues driving the conflict. TrumpThe introducedaccord effectiveignored newthe dynamismrole thatof createdmilitias spacelike forM23 progressand lacked enforcement mechanisms, formalizingallowing termsRwanda includingto permanentcontinue ceasefire,covert disarmamentsupport provisionswhile andthe refugeeDRC returnsmaintained whilehardline unlockingpositions criticalneither mineralside accesscould forback Americamilitarily. ThisWithout markssustained thehigh-level beginningengagement ofand areal demandingconsequences butfor transformativeviolations, paththis towardsuperficial lastingdealmaking regionalwas peacedestined to collapse immediately.

Metaculus Prediction

There is a 60 percent chance that the Democratic Republic of Congo will experience a civil war before 2036, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


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All rights reserved.

Version 6.18.0