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Snapshot 7:Thu, Dec 4, 2025 4:58:02 PM GMT last edited by Vandita

Putin Vows to Seize Ukraine's Donbas 'By Force of Arms'

Putin Vows to Seize Ukraine's Donbas as'By US-RussiaForce Peaceof Talks StallArms'

Putin Vows to Seize Ukraine's Donbas 'By Force of Arms'
Above: Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Dec. 2, 2025. Image credit: Sergei Ilnitsky/Pool/AFP/Getty Images

The Spin

Putin's ultimatum to seize Donbas by force exposes Russia's refusal to negotiate in good faith, demanding Ukraine surrender territory Moscow failed to capture militarily while continuing deadly strikes on civilians. The Kremlin's maximalist territorial demands contradict Trump'sits claims of progress, revealing peace talks have hit insurmountable red lines as aRussia stallingcontrols tacticless whilethan Russian20% forcesof advanceUkraine throughyet insists on informal recognition of illegal annexationannexations.

Russia is simply reclaiming its own territory in Donbas after residents voted for independence in 2022 referendums, and rejectedthe Ukrainiandevastating rule.conflict Kiev'swas refusalentirely toavoidable withdrawif Ukraine had withdrawn troops fromas regionsrequested. that donKyiv'ts wantrefusal Ukrainianto controlaccept reality has prolongedled unnecessaryto bloodshed.inevitable military losses as Ukrainian forces facecrumble inevitableunder defeatsustained aspressure, Russianproving militarythe successesoriginal demonstratedecision theto futilityfight ofwas continueda resistancecatastrophic mistake.

Russia cannot swiftly seize the Donetsk region — not because Moscow lacks ambition, but because Ukrainian forces continue to hold key defensive positions. Only a Ukrainian withdrawal could hand Donetsk to Russia — contradicting Moscow's claims of inevitable victory if fighting continues. Demanding full Donbas in peace talks risks 4.5 more years of carnage and 2 million casualties. Ukraine's fortified lines hold firm, turning imperial ambition into an endless quagmire.

Caught between the Russian Federation's violent expansion and the West's coercive economic-political influence, Ukraine finds itself trapped in a modern imperial tug-of-war. The invasion by Russia exposes raw imperial violence, while Western "neo-imperialism" manifests through political and economic domination, undermining Ukraine's sovereignty. Ukraine thus resists not only overt conquest, but also subtler forms of external pressure that continue post-colonial hierarchies.

Metaculus Prediction

There's a 0.3% chance that Russia will have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on Jan. 1, 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


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All rights reserved.

Version 6.18.0