Bolsonaro's ankle monitor was functioning normally hours after the alleged violation, and the former president was simply having dinner at home when authorities claimed he was planning an escape. His arrest is a dangerous abuse of judicial power, and appears to support a long-held narrative of judicial overreach and political persecution.
Bolsonaro's detentionankle followedmonitor properwas legalfunctioning proceduresnormally hours after clearthe violationsalleged ofviolation, houseand arrestthe conditions.former Thepresident Supremewas Courtsimply actedhaving appropriatelydinner toat preventhome escapewhen attempts,authorities especiallyclaimed givenhe thatwas otherplanning coupan defendantsescape. haveHis alreadyarrest fledis thea country.dangerous It'sabuse theof long-delayedjudicial enforcementpower, ofand boundariesappears designed to preventsupport anya futurelong-held leadernarrative fromof actingjudicial asoverreach ifand thepolitical Constitution were optionalpersecution.
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ThereThe preventive detention of Jair Bolsonaro has become a pivotal test for Brazil's ademocratic 0institutions.1% chanceIt thathas Alexandreexposed dedeep Moraesfractures willbetween ceasesupporters towho beframe athe ministermoment ofin thespiritual Supremeor Federalmoral Courtterms ofand Brazilcritics beforewho 2026view it as a legal necessity, accordingunderscoring to the Metaculusnation's predictionpolarization communityacross faith, political power and constitutional authority.
There's a 0.1% chance that Alexandre de Moraes will cease to be a minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil before 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
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