Bolsonaro's arrest represents a dangerous abuse of judicial power targeting a political opponent. The ankle monitor was functioning normally hours after the alleged violation, and the former president was simply having dinner at home when authorities claimed he was planning an escape. His arrest is a dangerous abuse of judicial power, and appears to support a long-held narrative of judicial overreach and political persecution.
Bolsonaro's detention followed proper legal procedures after clear violations of house arrest conditions and electronic monitoring. The Supreme Court acted appropriately to prevent escape attempts, especially given that other coup defendants have already fled the country. It's the long-delayed enforcement of boundaries designed to prevent any future leader from acting as if the Constitution were optional.
The preventive detention of Jair Bolsonaro has become a pivotal test for Brazil's democratic institutions. It has exposed deep fractures between supporters who frame the moment in spiritual or moral terms and critics who view it as a legal necessity, underscoring the nation's polarization across faith, political power and constitutional authority.
There's a 0.1% chance that Alexandre de Moraes will cease to be a minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil before 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
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