If reports are accurate, it would mean U.S. President Donald Trump is so anxious to get the war settled that he's prepared to do it at any cost. That includes Ukraine's capitulation and threatening Europe's security infrastructure. All of this would only make future Russian aggression against Ukraine and the rest of Europe all the more probable.
There'sEnding a 50%war chanceas therecomplicated willas bethe one between Russia and Ukraine not only requires a bilateralfrank ceasefirediscussion orabout peacethe agreementrealities betweenof Russiathe conflict and Ukrainean byhonest Mayexchange 2027of ideas, accordingit also needs both sides to make difficult concessions. The U.S. continues to facilitate these conversations so that an end to the Metaculuswar predictioncan communityfinally be secured.
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There's a 50% chance there will be a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine by April 2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
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