Venezuela's military mobilization shows Maduro's desperation after U.S. President Trump authorized targeting transnational criminal organizations threatening American security. The deployment of the USS Gerald Ford and strike group provides the necessary capabilities to disrupt narcotics trafficking and is a clear warning to the Venezuelan dictator. Venezuela's alliance with Russia, Iran and China, while harboring drug cartels, justifies enhanced U.S. presence to protect the homeland and regional stability.

Despite deploying the USS Gerald R. Ford to the Caribbean, a full-scale U.S. war against Venezuela seems unlikely. Washington seeks coercive leverage, not yet another military adventure with devastating consequences; Venezuela’s geography, alliances, and oil market volatility make invasion politically and economically suicidal. Even hawkish analysts concede such a move would trigger global backlash and regional instability. However, a potential regime change operation remains on the table.

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Despite deploying the USS Gerald R. Ford to the Caribbean, a full-scale U.S. war against Venezuela seems unlikely. Washington seeks coercive leverage, not yet another military adventure with devastating consequences; Venezuela’s geography, alliances, and oil market volatility make invasion politically and economically suicidal. Even hawkish analysts concede such a move would trigger global backlash and regional instability. However, a potential regime change operation remains on the table.