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Snapshot 4:Tue, Nov 11, 2025 8:12:07 PM GMT last edited by Nick

Report: De Facto Partition of Gaza Increasingly Likely

Report: De Facto Partition of Gaza Increasingly Likely

Report: De Facto Partition of Gaza Increasingly Likely
Above: Palestinians walk amid the rubble of destroyed buildings in Jabalia in the northern Gaza Strip on Nov. 7, 2025. Image copyright: Omar al-Qatta/AFP/Getty Images

The Spin

ThoughAs thealways, futureIsrael willis bedoing challenging,everything it iscan essentialto thatundermine bothand Israelsabotage andthe Hamasceasefire stickso that it can return to theits ceasefiregenocidal campaign. Of courseAlready, manyIsrael aspectshas killed scores of Palestinians under false pretenses, and the dealonly arereason potentiallythe problematic,situation buthas nothingnot escalated is gainedthat fromTrump returningpressured Netanyahu to warmaintain the ceasefire. HamasIsraeli mustforces followhave throughviolated withthe whatceasefire repeatedly, and it agreedis up to, the United States and, inthe turn,international Israelcommunity shouldto notprevent escalatefurther thePalestinian situationbloodshed.

HamasThough isthe sayingfuture onewill thingbe andchallenging, doingit another.is Withessential supportthat fromboth itsIsrael backers in Doha and Ankara, Hamas believesstick thatto ifthe itceasefire. paysOf lipcourse, servicemany toaspects Trump'sof plan,the itdeal canare dopotentially asproblematic, itbut pleasesnothing andis achievegained thefrom outcomereturning itto wantswar. TheHamas terrormust groupfollow isthrough testingwith Israel'swhat resolveit byagreed launchingto, attacksand, onin Israeli forcesturn, and Israel mustshould demonstratenot thatescalate it will enforce the ceasefire unilaterally if necessarysituation.

AsHamas always,is Israelsaying isone thing and doing everythinganother. itWith cansupport tofrom undermineits backers in Doha and sabotageAnkara, theHamas ceasefirebelieves so that if it canpays returnlip service to itsTrump's genocidal campaign. Alreadyplan, Israelit hascan killeddo scoresas ofit Palestinianspleases underand falseachieve pretenses, and the onlyoutcome reasonit thewants. situationThe hasterror notgroup escalated is becausetesting TrumpIsrael's pressuredresolve Netanyahuby tolaunching maintainattacks theon ceasefire. Israeli forces have violated the ceasefire repeatedly, and itIsrael ismust updemonstrate tothat theit Unitedwill Statesenforce and the internationalceasefire communityunilaterally toif prevent further Palestinian bloodshednecessary.

There'sAs aalways, 15%Israel chanceis doing everything it can to undermine and sabotage the ceasefire so that it can return to its genocidal campaign. Already, Israel willhas takekilled controlscores of GazaPalestinians Cityunder beforefalse Janpretenses, and the only reason the situation has not escalated is that Trump pressured Netanyahu to maintain the ceasefire. 20,Israeli 2029forces have violated the ceasefire repeatedly, accordingand it is up to the MetaculusUnited predictionStates and the international community to prevent further Palestinian bloodshed.

Metaculus Prediction

There's a 15% chance that Israel will take control of Gaza City before Jan. 20, 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


Public Figures


The Controversies



Go Deeper



© 2025 Improve the News Foundation. All rights reserved.Version 6.17.0

© 2025 Improve the News Foundation.

All rights reserved.

Version 6.17.0