Lloyd Austin

Mark Milley

Mike Minihan

Jacob Thornburg

Michael Brenner

Finian Cunningham

Scott Ritter

Ray Dalio

Kevin Rudd

Zhao Tong

Stanislaw Koziej

Robert S. Ross

Charles C. Krulak

Michael C. Horowitz

Joseph S. Nye

Qin Gang

Frank Kendall III

Thomas L. Friedman

Marco J. Lyons

Global Times

Metaculus

"I argue that war is unlikely to occur due to the deep economic ties underlying the great power politics between the two countries."

"War with either [Russia or China] is neither inevitable nor imminent."

"As things currently stand, the US is not prepared to fight and win a war with China over Taiwan."

"A war between the US and China today is no more inevitable than was war between the rising US and the declining United Kingdom a century ago."

"[T]he tension between the United States and China will grow, and competition will intensify; it is inevitable. War, however, is not."

"War is a risk, but it is not inevitable."

"The risk of a military conflict is very serious."

"The smallest misstep by either side [Taipei and Beijing] could ignite a U.S.-China war."

"China is preparing for a war and specifically for a war with the United States."

"The most proximate potential timeframe for war is in the next two years."

"My gut tells me we [the US] will fight [with China] in 2025."

Will There Be a US-China War?

Andrew Ng

Eric Schmidt

Chuck Schumer

Brad Smith

Nestor Maslej

Ruth Porat

Ylli Bajraktari

Bruegel

National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence

Brandon J. Weichert

Clement Delangue

Zhou Hongyi

Joseph Tsai

Huey-Meei Chang

Craig S. Smith

Jeffrey Ding

Ray Perrault

Susana Martinez

Niall Ferguson

Larry Elliot

Marcel Munch

Pavel Durov

John Rush

"I think, today, [China is] probably two years behind the top [AI] models [from the US]."

"Where China sits [in AI], I think, is very far behind the US."

"The United States is in a strong position to win the essential [AI] race with China."

"China will dominate AI."

"The combination with China's self-made chips + AI infrastructure stack will put China ahead of the US."

China would "undoubtedly come out on top [in the US-China AI race]."

"[I]t seems like the United States is really far ahead [when it comes to generative AI]."

"China will lead the world in AI development."

In 2025, "China will start to lead the AI race (as a consequence of leading the open-source AI race)."

Will China Surpass the US in AI?

The Wall Street Journal reported Monday that China is planning to implement a "validated end-user system" that will exclude companies with ties to the U.S. military while expediting export approvals for other firms.

Wall Street Journal

Reuters

CN Wire

The Wall Street Journal reported Monday that China is planning to implement a "validated end-user system" that will exclude companies with ties to the U.S. military while expediting export approvals for other firms.

According to sources familiar with the matter, the proposed system would enable Chinese leader Xi Jinping to fulfill commitments to U.S. President Donald Trump regarding material exports and to ensure that restricted items do not reach U.S. military suppliers.

WION

MINT

Breitbart

According to sources familiar with the matter, the proposed system would enable Chinese leader Xi Jinping to fulfill commitments to U.S. President Donald Trump regarding material exports and to ensure that restricted items do not reach U.S. military suppliers.

Rare-earth magnets are essential components in military systems, including F-35 warplanes, submarines, drones, Tomahawk missiles, and radar systems. They are used in civilian products as well, such as electric vehicles and passenger aircraft.

CNBC

FOX News

Rare-earth magnets are essential components in military systems, including F-35 warplanes, submarines, drones, Tomahawk missiles, and radar systems. They are used in civilian products as well, such as electric vehicles and passenger aircraft.

China controls approximately 85% of global rare earth elements through mining and 95% of processing capacity, while the U.S. imports around 70% of its rare earth materials from China, according to government surveys.

Li Zexin

China controls approximately 85% of global rare earth elements through mining and 95% of processing capacity, while the U.S. imports around 70% of its rare earth materials from China, according to government surveys.

The European Union imports about 98% of key rare earths from China, making it more dependent than the U.S., as European governments work to rearm militaries amid Chinese export restrictions on critical minerals.

The New York Times

Financial Times

The European Union imports about 98% of key rare earths from China, making it more dependent than the U.S., as European governments work to rearm militaries amid Chinese export restrictions on critical minerals.

Chinese rare-earth magnet exports to the U.S. declined 29% in September from the previous month, indicating that continued restrictions affected companies in the weeks before the trade truce between Trump and Xi Jinping.

South China Morning Post

Chinese rare-earth magnet exports to the U.S. declined 29% in September from the previous month, indicating that continued restrictions affected companies in the weeks before the trade truce between Trump and Xi Jinping.

China plans to implement a validated end-user system that will exclude companies with ties to the U.S. military while expediting export approvals for other firms, according to sources familiar with the matter reported by Reuters and the Wall Street Journal.</span

Wall Street Journal #

Reuters #

China plans to implement a validated end-user system that will exclude companies with ties to the U.S. military while expediting export approvals for other firms, according to sources familiar with the matter reported by Reuters and the Wall Street Journal.

The proposed system would enable Chinese leader Xi Jinping to fulfill commitments to President Trump regarding material exports while ensuring restricted items do not reach U.S. military suppliers, though Beijing's plan could still change before implementation.</span

WION #

MINT #

The proposed system would enable Chinese leader Xi Jinping to fulfill commitments to President Trump regarding material exports while ensuring restricted items do not reach U.S. military suppliers, though Beijing's plan could still change before implementation.

China controls approximately 85 percent of global rare earth elements through mining and 95 percent of processing capacity, while the U.S. imports around 70 percent of its rare earth materials from China according to government surveys.</span

CNBC #

China controls approximately 85 percent of global rare earth elements through mining and 95 percent of processing capacity, while the U.S. imports around 70 percent of its rare earth materials from China according to government surveys.

European Union imports about 98 percent of key rare earths from China, making it more dependent than the United States, as European governments work to rearm militaries while facing Chinese export restrictions on critical minerals.</span

The New York Times #

European Union imports about 98 percent of key rare earths from China, making it more dependent than the United States, as European governments work to rearm militaries while facing Chinese export restrictions on critical minerals.

Rare earth magnets serve as crucial components in military systems including F-35 warplanes, submarines, drones, Tomahawk missiles and radar systems, while also being used in civilian products like electric vehicles and passenger aircraft.</span

Rare earth magnets serve as crucial components in military systems including F-35 warplanes, submarines, drones, Tomahawk missiles and radar systems, while also being used in civilian products like electric vehicles and passenger aircraft.

Chinese rare earth magnet exports to the U.S. declined 29 percent in September from the previous month, indicating continued restrictions affected companies in the weeks before the trade truce between Trump and Xi Jinping.</span

Chinese rare earth magnet exports to the U.S. declined 29 percent in September from the previous month, indicating continued restrictions affected companies in the weeks before the trade truce between Trump and Xi Jinping.

China's strategic control over rare earth minerals represents masterful long-term planning while the West foolishly outsourced its own survival for short-term profits. Beijing executed patient siegecraft through trade policy, building 90% market dominance while Western leaders chased quarterly gains and mistook efficiency for strategy.

China's strategic control over rare earth minerals represents masterful long-term planning while the West foolishly outsourced its own survival for short-term profits. Beijing executed patient siegecraft through trade policy, building 90% market dominance while Western leaders chased quarterly gains and mistook efficiency for strategy.</span

Global Times #

China suspends some export controls on dual-use items to US

Michelle

michellebullet1

America's rare earth dependency crisis stems from decades of catastrophic policy failures that handed strategic assets to an adversary. The US once dominated this sector but allowed China to systematically acquire critical technologies like Magnequench while regulatory shutdowns crippled domestic production.

America's rare earth dependency crisis stems from decades of catastrophic policy failures that handed strategic assets to an adversary. The US once dominated this sector but allowed China to systematically acquire critical technologies like Magnequench while regulatory shutdowns crippled domestic production.</span

Commonplace

Commonplace #

America Gave Away Rare Earths

Patricia Marins

pati_marins64

The US-China Conflict

China Plans Export System to Block US Military Suppliers

China

Military

United States of America

China's "validated end-user" system ensures that exports of rare-earth magnets do not end up in U.S. military use, safeguarding Beijing's national security interests. By selectively granting export licenses only to civilian firms, China strengthens its geopolitical leverage and preserves supply-chain dominance, compelling American defense contractors to seek alternative sources.

China's "validated end-user" system ensures that exports of rare-earth magnets do not end up in U.S. military use, safeguarding Beijing's national security interests. By selectively granting export licenses only to civilian firms, China strengthens its geopolitical leverage and preserves supply-chain dominance, compelling American defense contractors to seek alternative sources.

Chinas export controls on rare earths not export bans; applications of compliant export for civil use can get approval: MOFCOM

XINHUA

China suspends part of control measures on dual-use items export to U.S.

China's new licensing regime for rare-earth magnets discriminates against U.S. military suppliers, effectively weaponising supply-chain dependence. By fast-tracking civilian exports and blocking defense-linked ones, Beijing undermines U.S. national security readiness and exploits its 70-90% control over the sector to gain an advantage in trade and geopolitics.

China's new licensing regime for rare-earth magnets discriminates against U.S. military suppliers, effectively weaponising supply-chain dependence. By fast-tracking civilian exports and blocking defense-linked ones, Beijing undermines U.S. national security readiness and exploits its 70-90% control over the sector to gain an advantage in trade and geopolitics.

China Hatches Plan To Keep U Military From Getting Its Rare Earth Magnets

Csis

Chinas New Rare Earth and Magnet Restrictions Threaten U.S. Defense Supply Chains

Rare earths fuel the war machine. The U.S., trapped by its own neglect, watches China command the minerals that make modern power possible. Each jet, ship and missile devours these elements. Without rebuilding alliances and global infrastructure, the West's arsenal will rust — its strength buried beneath its own complacency.

Rare earths fuel the war machine. The U.S., trapped by its own neglect, watches China command the minerals that make modern power possible. Each jet, ship and missile devours these elements. Without rebuilding alliances and global infrastructure, the West's arsenal will rust — its strength buried beneath its own complacency.

There's a 30% chance that less than 75% of European Union imports of rare-earth magnets will originate in China in 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

There's a 30% chance that less than 75% of European Union imports of rare-earth magnets will originate in China in 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Report: China Targeting US Military with Rare Earth Export Curbs

Report: China PlansTargeting ExportUS SystemMilitary towith BlockRare USEarth MilitaryExport SuppliersCurbs

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