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Chinas New Rare Earth and Magnet Restrictions Threaten U.S. Defense Supply Chains

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Did China just put a chokehold on US defence? How its rare earth end use restrictions could hit American military hard

China suspends some export controls on dual-use items to US

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Reuters

China Devises Plan Keep Us Military Getting Its Rare Earth Magnets

The Wall Street Journal

China Hatches Plan To Keep U Military From Getting Its Rare Earth Magnets

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China hatches plan to keep US military from getting its rare-earth magnets

The New York Times

Rare Earth China Europe.Html

Metaculus

EU's Rare Earth Magnet Imports in 2030

Lloyd Austin

Mark Milley

Mike Minihan

Jacob Thornburg

Michael Brenner

Finian Cunningham

Scott Ritter

Ray Dalio

Kevin Rudd

Zhao Tong

Stanislaw Koziej

Robert S. Ross

Charles C. Krulak

Michael C. Horowitz

Joseph S. Nye

Qin Gang

Frank Kendall III

Thomas L. Friedman

Marco J. Lyons

"I argue that war is unlikely to occur due to the deep economic ties underlying the great power politics between the two countries."

"War with either [Russia or China] is neither inevitable nor imminent."

"As things currently stand, the US is not prepared to fight and win a war with China over Taiwan."

"A war between the US and China today is no more inevitable than was war between the rising US and the declining United Kingdom a century ago."

"[T]he tension between the United States and China will grow, and competition will intensify; it is inevitable. War, however, is not."

"War is a risk, but it is not inevitable."

"The risk of a military conflict is very serious."

"The smallest misstep by either side [Taipei and Beijing] could ignite a U.S.-China war."

"China is preparing for a war and specifically for a war with the United States."

"The most proximate potential timeframe for war is in the next two years."

"My gut tells me we [the US] will fight [with China] in 2025."

Will There Be a US-China War?

Andrew Ng

Eric Schmidt

Chuck Schumer

Brad Smith

Nestor Maslej

Ruth Porat

Ylli Bajraktari

Bruegel

National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence

Brandon J. Weichert

Clement Delangue

Zhou Hongyi

Joseph Tsai

Huey-Meei Chang

Craig S. Smith

Jeffrey Ding

Ray Perrault

Susana Martinez

Niall Ferguson

Larry Elliot

Marcel Munch

Pavel Durov

John Rush

"I think, today, [China is] probably two years behind the top [AI] models [from the US]."

"Where China sits [in AI], I think, is very far behind the US."

"The United States is in a strong position to win the essential [AI] race with China."

"China will dominate AI."

"The combination with China's self-made chips + AI infrastructure stack will put China ahead of the US."

China would "undoubtedly come out on top [in the US-China AI race]."

"[I]t seems like the United States is really far ahead [when it comes to generative AI]."

"China will lead the world in AI development."

In 2025, "China will start to lead the AI race (as a consequence of leading the open-source AI race)."

Will China Surpass the US in AI?

China plans to implement a validated end-user system that will exclude companies with ties to the U.S. military while expediting export approvals for other firms, according to sources familiar with the matter reported by Reuters and the Wall Street Journal.</span

China plans to implement a validated end-user system that will exclude companies with ties to the U.S. military while expediting export approvals for other firms, according to sources familiar with the matter reported by Reuters and the Wall Street Journal.

The proposed system would enable Chinese leader Xi Jinping to fulfill commitments to President Trump regarding material exports while ensuring restricted items do not reach U.S. military suppliers, though Beijing's plan could still change before implementation.</span

The proposed system would enable Chinese leader Xi Jinping to fulfill commitments to President Trump regarding material exports while ensuring restricted items do not reach U.S. military suppliers, though Beijing's plan could still change before implementation.

China controls approximately 85 percent of global rare earth elements through mining and 95 percent of processing capacity, while the U.S. imports around 70 percent of its rare earth materials from China according to government surveys.</span

China controls approximately 85 percent of global rare earth elements through mining and 95 percent of processing capacity, while the U.S. imports around 70 percent of its rare earth materials from China according to government surveys.

European Union imports about 98 percent of key rare earths from China, making it more dependent than the United States, as European governments work to rearm militaries while facing Chinese export restrictions on critical minerals.</span

European Union imports about 98 percent of key rare earths from China, making it more dependent than the United States, as European governments work to rearm militaries while facing Chinese export restrictions on critical minerals.

Rare earth magnets serve as crucial components in military systems including F-35 warplanes, submarines, drones, Tomahawk missiles and radar systems, while also being used in civilian products like electric vehicles and passenger aircraft.</span

Rare earth magnets serve as crucial components in military systems including F-35 warplanes, submarines, drones, Tomahawk missiles and radar systems, while also being used in civilian products like electric vehicles and passenger aircraft.

Chinese rare earth magnet exports to the U.S. declined 29 percent in September from the previous month, indicating continued restrictions affected companies in the weeks before the trade truce between Trump and Xi Jinping.</span

Chinese rare earth magnet exports to the U.S. declined 29 percent in September from the previous month, indicating continued restrictions affected companies in the weeks before the trade truce between Trump and Xi Jinping.

China Plans Export System to Block US Military Suppliers

China HatchesPlans PlanExport System to KeepBlock U.S.US Military From Getting Its Rare-Earth MagnetsSuppliers

The Controversies

Thornburg

Milley

Ritter

Krulak

Rudd

Nye

Tong

Friedman

III

Horowitz

Minihan

Tsai

Ding

Smith

Rush

Munch

Hongyi

Maslej

Martinez

Delangue

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