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Snapshot 5:Tue, Nov 11, 2025 6:45:54 PM GMT last edited by Edward

SoftBank Sells Entire Nvidia Stake for $5.8B

SoftBank Sells $5.8BEntire Nvidia Stake tofor Fund OpenAI Investment$5.8B

Above: Pedestrians walk past the SoftBank Group headquarters in Tokyo, Japan, on Nov. 11, 2025. Image credit: KAZUHIRO NOGI/AFP via Getty Images

The Spin

TheSoftBank’s AIdecision marketto surgesell its NVIDIA shares reflects solidthe fundamentalsbank’s shifting priorities, notespecially bubblein speculation.the Unliketech pastsector. bubblesWith drivenits by$30 poorlybillion capitalizedOpenAI startupsdeal, today'sSoftBank techhad gainsno comeother choice but to divest from establisheddifferent companiesareas withto strongfund earningsits growthcommitment. WhileGiven valuationsOpenAI’s arerising elevatedvaluation and SoftBank’s substantial returns, theymeeting haven'tthis reachedobligation historicalis bubbleessential levelsfor thatSoftBank’s signalfuture imminent collapseprosperity.

The AI bubblemarket’s mirrorssurge thereflects dotcomsolid maniafundamentals, withnot extremebubble-like valuationsspeculation. atUnlike peakpast bubblebubbles levelsdriven andby dangerouspoorly concentrationcapitalized risks.startups, Seventoday’s tech giantsgains nowcome controlfrom aestablished thirdcompanies ofwith thestrong S&Pearnings 500,growth. creatingWhile circularvaluations investmentsare andhigh, capitalthey misallocation.have Thenot economicreached backdropthe lackslevels theseen favorablein conditionshistorical bubbles that sustainedsignal theimminent 1990s boomcollapse.

The AI bubble mirrors the dotcom mania with extreme valuations and dangerous concentration risks. Seven tech giants now control a third of the S&P 500, creating a circular investment pattern and capital misallocation. To make matters worse, the economic backdrop lacks the favorable conditions that sustained the 1990s boom, meaning the crash will most likely be worse.

Metaculus Prediction

There is a 96% chance that Nvidia will outperform the S&P 500 in 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


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All rights reserved.

Version 6.18.0