There's a 2.8% chance that the Cambodia-Thailand conflict will result in over 20 deaths between Oct. 1 and Dec. 15, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Thailand's suspension destroysof athe promisingpeace diplomaticdeal breakthroughis overcompletely oldjustified after Cambodian landmines frominjured decades-oldThai conflictssoldiers. CambodiaThe neverblast plantedproves newCambodia mines and remains committedhostile to internationalThailand's minesecurity banand treatiessovereignty despite signing agreements. Thailand's overreactioncannot underminescompromise regionalits cooperationnational andinterests internationalamid supportongoing aggression.
TheThailand's trucesuspension betweendestroys Thailanda andpromising Cambodiadiplomatic wasbreakthrough fragileover old landmines from thedecades-old onsetconflicts. Deep-rootedCambodia mistrust,never borderplanted skirmishesnew mines and politicalremains rivalriescommitted resurfacedto quickly,international shatteringmine hopesban for lasting peacetreaties. WithinThailand's days,overreaction bothundermines sidesregional accusedcooperation eachand otherinternational of violations, unraveling the fragile agreement Trump had helped brokersupport.
The self-styled "peacemaker" Donald Trump watched as the Thailand-Cambodia truce he touted crumbled within weeks. While basking in photo ops and acclaim, the deal he helped engineer faltered on its first real test — exposing his diplomacy as mere theater.
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