Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Alexander Lukashenko

William Burns

Dmitry Peskov

Fiona Hill

Sergei Markov

Oleksiy Reznikov

James Stavridis

Dmitry Medvedev

Barry Posen

James Acton

Kevin Ryan

Nicolo Fasola

Matthew Bunn

Steven Pifer

Harry Kazianis

Mikhail Kasyanov

Robert Gates

Mitt Romney

Alexey Zaitsev

Pat Buchanan

Nina Khrushcheva

William Alberque

Fabian Hoffmann

Stephen I. Schwartz

Olga Oliker

Ira Helfand

Metaculus

"I think it's extremely unlikely that he [Putin] would move in that [using tactical nuclear weapons] direction in the current conflict."

"I don't see Putin deciding to use a nuclear weapon."

"There are reasons to believe Moscow would not press the nuclear button."

"Though it is unlikely that Russia will use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, the risks are real."

Putin has sent many signals that "he will use battlefield nuclear weapons from his arsenal of 6,000 such weapons to win the war."

"Well, yes, he [Putin] would [launch a nuclear attack]."

Would Putin Detonate Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine?

Russia has deployed a land-based cruise missile in Ukraine that prompted U.S. President Donald Trump to withdraw from a landmark nuclear treaty in 2019, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha alleged to Reuters this week. The outlet also cited a senior Ukrainian military official who alleged that since August, Russia has used the 9M729 missile on 23 occasions.

Reuters

Politics Today

Russia has deployed a land-based cruise missile in Ukraine that prompted U.S. President Donald Trump to withdraw from a landmark nuclear treaty in 2019, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha alleged to Reuters this week. The outlet also cited a senior Ukrainian military official who alleged that since August, Russia has used the 9M729 missile on 23 occasions.

The weapon has been the source of a long-running dispute between Washington and Moscow, with the U.S. first publicly accusing Russia of violating the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF treaty) during President Barack Obama's administration in 2014. At the time, the name of the weapon was not revealed, but was disclosed by Trump officials when withdrawing from the treaty five years later.

BBC News

Dw.Com

The weapon has been the source of a long-running dispute between Washington and Moscow, with the U.S. first publicly accusing Russia of violating the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF treaty) during President Barack Obama's administration in 2014. At the time, the name of the weapon was not revealed, but was disclosed by Trump officials when withdrawing from the treaty five years later.

The INF treaty, signed by U.S. President Ronald Reagan and Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev in 1987, banned land-based missiles with ranges between 310 and 3,400 miles (500 and 5,500 km). Russia initially denied the existence of the 9M273 missile, but when it was acknowledged, it insisted its range was within the treaty's limits.

Arms Control Association

TASS

The INF treaty, signed by U.S. President Ronald Reagan and Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev in 1987, banned land-based missiles with ranges between 310 and 3,400 miles (500 and 5,500 km). Russia initially denied the existence of the 9M273 missile, but when it was acknowledged, it insisted its range was within the treaty's limits.

However, that claim is disputed by the U.S., which says it has an upper range of roughly 930 miles (1,500 km). In the latest report from Reuters, a Ukrainian military source is cited as stating that one alleged deployment of the missile on Oct. 5 was observed being fired from roughly 745 miles (1,200 km) away.

Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance

Csis

However, that claim is disputed by the U.S., which says it has an upper range of roughly 930 miles (1,500 km). In the latest report from Reuters, a Ukrainian military source is cited as stating that one alleged deployment of the missile on Oct. 5 was observed being fired from roughly 745 miles (1,200 km) away.

The report came amid heightened nuclear tensions. Over the past week, Putin announced the successful testing of two nuclear-capable weapons — <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.verity.news/story/2025/putin-announces-successful-test-of-nuclearpowered-missile">the Burevestnik nuclear-powered cruise missile</a>, announced on Sunday, and the Poseidon nuclear-powered torpedo, announced on Wednesday.

The Associated Press

The report came amid heightened nuclear tensions. Over the past week, Putin announced the successful testing of two nuclear-capable weapons — the Burevestnik nuclear-powered cruise missile, announced on Sunday, and the Poseidon nuclear-powered torpedo, announced on Wednesday.

Hours later, <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.verity.news/story/2025/trump-orders-resumption-of-nuclear-testing-after-years">Trump announced that he instructed the U.S. Department of Defense (War) to immediately resume nuclear weapons testing</a>, stating this was prompted by the testing programs of other countries.

Donald Trump

Truth Social

Hours later, Trump announced that he instructed the U.S. Department of Defense (War) to immediately resume nuclear weapons testing, stating this was prompted by the testing programs of other countries.

Reuters #

Politics Today #

BBC News #

Dw.Com #

Arms Control Association #

TASS #

However, that is disputed by the U.S. that says it has an upper range of roughly 930 miles (1,500 km). In the latest report from Reuters, a Ukrainian military source is cited as stating that one alleged deployment of the missile on Oct. 5 was observed being fired from roughly 745 miles (1,200 km) away.

Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance #

Csis #

However, that is disputed by the U.S. that says it has an upper range of roughly 930 miles (1,500 km). In the latest report from Reuters, a Ukrainian military source is cited as stating that one alleged deployment of the missile on Oct. 5 was observed being fired from roughly 745 miles (1,200 km) away.

The report came amid heightened nuclear tensions. Over the past week, Putin announced the successful testing of two nuclear-capable weapons — <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.verity.news/story/2025/putin-announces-successful-test-of-nuclearpowered-missile">the Burevestnik nuclear-powered cruise missile</a>, announced on Sunday; and the Poseidon nuclear-powered torpedo, announced on Wednesday.

The Associated Press #4157

NBC #1561

The report came amid heightened nuclear tensions. Over the past week, Putin announced the successful testing of two nuclear-capable weapons — the Burevestnik nuclear-powered cruise missile, announced on Sunday; and the Poseidon nuclear-powered torpedo, announced on Wednesday.

Hours later, <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.verity.news/story/2025/trump-orders-resumption-of-nuclear-testing-after-years">Trump announced that he instructed the U.S. Department of War to immediately resume nuclear weapons testing</a>, stating this was prompted by the testing programs of other countries.

Truth Social #

Hours later, Trump announced that he instructed the U.S. Department of War to immediately resume nuclear weapons testing, stating this was prompted by the testing programs of other countries.

In Russia's deployment of INF-range missiles, which could easily be nuclear, it is not only sending a signal to Ukraine but to all of Europe, as these weapons threaten their security as well. Putin is also trying to ramp up pressure on Trump as part of the Ukraine negotiations.

In Russia's deployment of INF-range missiles, which could easily be nuclear, it is not only sending a signal to Ukraine but to all of Europe, as these weapons threaten their security as well. Putin is also trying to ramp up pressure on Trump as part of the Ukraine negotiations.

Russia Uses Missile Ukraine That Led Trump Quit Nuclear Treaty Kyiv Says 2025 10 31

Russia rejects Washington's assertions about the 9M729 missile, which only has a range of 300 miles (480 km). Moreover, Putin floated the idea of not deploying these weapons in the European parts of Russia. However, such a move is only possible if NATO were to take reciprocal steps.

Russia rejects Washington's assertions about the 9M729 missile, which only has a range of 300 miles (480 km). Moreover, Putin floated the idea of not deploying these weapons in the European parts of Russia. However, such a move is only possible if NATO were to take reciprocal steps.

Kremlin defers question on use of short-, medium-range missiles in Ukraine to top brass

There's a 25% chance that a nuclear weapon will be detonated as an act of war by 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

There's a 25% chance that a nuclear weapon will be detonated as an act of war by 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Metaculus #

At least 1 Nuclear Detonation in War by 2050

The Russia-Ukraine War

Bai Xueqi/Xinhua News Agency/Getty Images

Ukraine Says Russia Used Missile That Led Trump to Quit INF Treaty

Bai Xueqi/Xinhua News Agency/Getty Images

Ukraine Says Russia Used Missile That Led Trump to Quit INF Treaty

Russia

Ukraine

United States of America

Politics

Nuclear weapons

Military

In Russia's deployment of INF-range missiles, which could easily be nuclear, it's not only sending a signal to Ukraine but to all of Europe, as these weapons threaten their security as well. Putin is also trying to ramp up pressure on Trump as part of the Ukraine negotiations.

In Russia's deployment of INF-range missiles, which could easily be nuclear, it's not only sending a signal to Ukraine but to all of Europe, as these weapons threaten their security as well. Putin is also trying to ramp up pressure on Trump as part of the Ukraine negotiations.

Ukraine Says Russia Used Missile That Led Trump to Quit INF Treaty

Ukraine Says Russia Used Missile That Led Trump to Quit INF Treaty

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Ukraine Says Russia Used Missile That Led Trump to Quit INF Treaty

Ukraine Says Russia Used Missile That Led Trump to Quit INF Treaty

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Pifer

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