Office for Budget Responsibility


The UK Government

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Brian Bell

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Rob Bates

Connor Tomlinson

We expect "net migration to average around 350,000 a year over the forecast period."

"Net migration is certain to be much lower than before and is expected to fall by over 250,000."

Net migration could be down to around 300,000 "in the next two to three years."

REJECTED Brian Bell

"It [a new Home Office assessment] suggests net migration could fall to 300,000 by 2029."

"Somewhere just below 300,000 would seem like a plausible medium-term scenario."

Will Annual UK Net Migration Fall Below 300,000 In A Year This Parliamentary Term?

Nigel Farage

Richard Tice

Chris Philp

Lee Anderson

Lucy Moreton

Lee Harris

Patrick Christys

Allison Pearson

Bob Blackman

"Starmer has no intention of stopping the boats."

Starmer's "track record, Labour's track record, the Home Secretary's track record and their actions here in Britain suggest there is no desire, or plan, to actually stop the boats."

"The boats will come, and numbers are likely to continue rising."

Starmer is "on track to smash the record for small boat crossings, with numbers up 44%."

"Labour has no intention of doing this [reducing small boat crossings], and Martin Hewitt is the perfect example of their lack of action."

"It [small boat crossings] is 38% worse than the previous worst year, so things are getting worse, not better."

"It [reduction in small boat crossings] can be done if there's the political will."

"[W]e will stop at nothing to dismantle their [people-smuggling gangs] business models [illegal small boat crossings] and bring them to justice."

Will Labour Reduce Small Boat Crossings in the English Channel?

A migrant sex offender, who was last week mistakenly released from Chelmsford prison before being recaptured, has been deported to his home country of Ethiopia, the U.K. Home Office said on Wednesday. Reports suggest he was paid £500 after threatening to disrupt the deportation.

The Standard

Telegraph UK

A migrant sex offender, who was last week mistakenly released from Chelmsford prison before being recaptured, has been deported to his home country of Ethiopia, the U.K. Home Office said on Wednesday. Reports suggest he was paid £500 after threatening to disrupt the deportation.

Hadush Kebatu, 41, arrived in the U.K. via a small boat in June — traveling through Sudan, Libya, Italy and France — before being housed in accommodation for asylum seekers at the Bell Hotel in Epping, Essex.

Yahoo! News

Hadush Kebatu, 41, arrived in the U.K. via a small boat in June — traveling through Sudan, Libya, Italy and France — before being housed in accommodation for asylum seekers at the Bell Hotel in Epping, Essex.

According to testimony made at his trial, Kebatu made sexually explicit comments to and tried to kiss a 14-year-old girl, before doing the same to an adult woman the next day. The woman saw him interacting with the same teenager the following day, prompting her to call the police.

According to testimony made at his trial, Kebatu made sexually explicit comments to and tried to kiss a 14-year-old girl, before doing the same to an adult woman the next day. The woman saw him interacting with the same teenager the following day, prompting her to call the police.

The incidents <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.verity.news/story/2025/police-escort-prorefugee-protesters-amid-hotel-clashes">triggered weeks of protests</a>, some of which turned violent and resulted in 32 total arrests, while the local council launched an unsuccessful legal bid to stop housing asylum seekers at the hotel.

Essex Police

The incidents triggered weeks of protests, some of which turned violent and resulted in 32 total arrests, while the local council launched an unsuccessful legal bid to stop housing asylum seekers at the hotel.

On Sept. 23, Kebatu was <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.verity.news/story/2025/ethiopian-asylum-seeker-jailed-for-sexual-assault-in-essex">sentenced to 12 months' imprisonment</a> and a five-year sexual harm prevention order. He was also placed on the sex offenders' register for ten years. Though subject to a deportation order, instead of being sent to an immigration detention center, he was mistakenly released on Oct. 24.

Guardian

On Sept. 23, Kebatu was sentenced to 12 months' imprisonment and a five-year sexual harm prevention order. He was also placed on the sex offenders' register for ten years. Though subject to a deportation order, instead of being sent to an immigration detention center, he was mistakenly released on Oct. 24.

Following tips from the public, he was re-arrested in the Finsbury Park area of London on the morning of Oct. 26. The Home Office later confirmed that he'd been placed on a flight to Ethiopia on Tuesday evening.

Following tips from the public, he was re-arrested in the Finsbury Park area of London on the morning of Oct. 26. The Home Office later confirmed that he'd been placed on a flight to Ethiopia on Tuesday evening.

The Standard #

Yahoo! News #

According to testimony made at his trial, Kebatu made sexually explicit comments to and tried to kiss a 14-year-old girl, before doing the same to an adult woman later the same day. The woman saw him interacting with the same teenager the following day, prompting her to call the police.

Guardian #

According to testimony made at his trial, Kebatu made sexually explicit comments to and tried to kiss a 14-year-old girl, before doing the same to an adult woman later the same day. The woman saw him interacting with the same teenager the following day, prompting her to call the police.

Essex Police #

BBC News #

ITV #

Last week's blunder should never have happened, but thanks are due to the police and public for helping get Kebatu back in custody. Since, the government has pulled every lever to ensure that this vile sex offender is quickly removed from British soil and is returned to Ethiopia. Anyone who comes to the U.K. and commits crime will face the same fate.

Last week's blunder should never have happened, but thanks are due to the police and public for helping get Kebatu back in custody. Since, the government has pulled every lever to ensure that this vile sex offender is quickly removed from British soil and is returned to Ethiopia. Anyone who comes to the U.K. and commits crime will face the same fate.

Epping sex offender Hadush Kebatu deported to Ethiopia, Home Office confirms

The Epping sex offender has finally been deported after the calamitous bungling of how this was handled by authorities. The way he was released was a complete disgrace and is a parable for how Britain is a broken country that's in desperate need of fixing.

The Epping sex offender has finally been deported after the calamitous bungling of how this was handled by authorities. The way he was released was a complete disgrace and is a parable for how Britain is a broken country that's in desperate need of fixing.

GB News

GBNEWS

Spectator (UK)

Spectator (UK) #

Why was Hadush Kebatu paid 500?

There is a 38% chance that the U.K. will have a Labour Prime Minister on Jan. 1, 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

There is a 38% chance that the U.K. will have a Labour Prime Minister on Jan. 1, 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

UK: Home Office Says Epping Sex Offender Deported to Ethiopia

UK: Home Office Says Epping Sex Offender Deported to Ethiopia

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UK: Home Office Says Epping Sex Offender Deported to Ethiopia

UK: Home Office Says Epping Sex Offender Deported to Ethiopia

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