Lloyd Austin

Mark Milley

Mike Minihan

Jacob Thornburg

Michael Brenner

Finian Cunningham

Scott Ritter

Ray Dalio

Global Times

Kevin Rudd

Zhao Tong

Stanislaw Koziej

Robert S. Ross

Charles C. Krulak

Michael C. Horowitz

Joseph S. Nye

Qin Gang

Frank Kendall III

Thomas L. Friedman

Marco J. Lyons

Metaculus

"I argue that war is unlikely to occur due to the deep economic ties underlying the great power politics between the two countries."

"War with either [Russia or China] is neither inevitable nor imminent."

"As things currently stand, the US is not prepared to fight and win a war with China over Taiwan."

"A war between the US and China today is no more inevitable than was war between the rising US and the declining United Kingdom a century ago."

"[T]he tension between the United States and China will grow, and competition will intensify; it is inevitable. War, however, is not."

"War is a risk, but it is not inevitable."

"The risk of a military conflict is very serious."

"The smallest misstep by either side [Taipei and Beijing] could ignite a U.S.-China war."

"China is preparing for a war and specifically for a war with the United States."

"The most proximate potential timeframe for war is in the next two years."

"My gut tells me we [the US] will fight [with China] in 2025."

Will There Be a US-China War?

On October 26, 2025, two U.S. Navy aircraft from the USS Nimitz crashed in the South China Sea within 30 minutes of each other during routine operations, with an MH-60R Sea Hawk helicopter going down at 2:45 p.m. local time and an F/A-18F Super Hornet crashing at 3:15 p.m.</span

Axios

U.S. Pacific Fleet

On October 26, 2025, two U.S. Navy aircraft from the USS Nimitz crashed in the South China Sea within 30 minutes of each other during routine operations, with an MH-60R Sea Hawk helicopter going down at 2:45 p.m. local time and an F/A-18F Super Hornet crashing at 3:15 p.m.

All five crew members from both aircraft were successfully rescued by search and rescue teams from Carrier Strike Group 11, with the three helicopter crew members and two fighter jet pilots who ejected safely all reported to be in stable condition.</span

The Wall Street Journal

All five crew members from both aircraft were successfully rescued by search and rescue teams from Carrier Strike Group 11, with the three helicopter crew members and two fighter jet pilots who ejected safely all reported to be in stable condition.

Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun stated that Beijing was willing to provide humanitarian assistance if requested, while also asserting that frequent U.S. military deployments in the South China Sea are the root cause of maritime security problems.</span

South China Morning Post

Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun stated that Beijing was willing to provide humanitarian assistance if requested, while also asserting that frequent U.S. military deployments in the South China Sea are the root cause of maritime security problems.

President Trump, speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One while traveling from Malaysia to Japan, described the back-to-back crashes as very unusual and suggested investigators believe bad fuel might be a potential cause of the incidents.</span

President Trump, speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One while traveling from Malaysia to Japan, described the back-to-back crashes as very unusual and suggested investigators believe bad fuel might be a potential cause of the incidents.

The USS Nimitz, America's oldest active aircraft carrier commissioned in 1975, is currently on its final deployment before scheduled decommissioning in 2026 and had been previously deployed in the Middle East responding to Houthi attacks on commercial shipping.</span

USA Today

The USS Nimitz, America's oldest active aircraft carrier commissioned in 1975, is currently on its final deployment before scheduled decommissioning in 2026 and had been previously deployed in the Middle East responding to Houthi attacks on commercial shipping.

The crashes occurred as the Navy has experienced multiple aircraft mishaps this year, including previous incidents involving the USS Harry S. Truman where F/A-18 fighters were lost due to various operational failures and accidents in the Red Sea region.</span

The Associated Press

Red State

The crashes occurred as the Navy has experienced multiple aircraft mishaps this year, including previous incidents involving the USS Harry S. Truman where F/A-18 fighters were lost due to various operational failures and accidents in the Red Sea region.

Two US Navy Aircraft Crash in South China Sea, All Crew Rescued

The Controversies

Thornburg

Milley

Ritter

Krulak

Rudd

Nye

Tong

Friedman

III

Horowitz

Minihan

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