Though the future will be challenging, it's essential that both Israel and Hamas stick to the ceasefire. Of course, many aspects of the deal are potentially problematic, but nothing is gained from returning to war. Hamas must follow through with what it agreed to, and, in turn, Israel should not escalate the situation.
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There'sAs analways, 11%Israel chanceis thatdoing everything it can to undermine and sabotage the Gazaceasefire warso willthat endit can return to its genocidal campaign. Already, Israel has killed scores of Palestinians under false pretenses, and significantthe progressonly willreason bethe madesituation towardshas anot two-stateescalated solutionis beforebecause 2030Trump pressured Netanyahu to maintain the ceasefire. Israeli forces have violated the ceasefire repeatedly, accordingand it is up to the MetaculusUnited predictionStates and the international community to prevent further Palestinian bloodshed.
There's an 11% chance that the Gaza war will end and significant progress will be made towards a two-state solution before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
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