The deployment of Tomahawks would be a serious escalation of this conflict. Without the ability to see whether Tomahawks are carrying a nuclear warheads or not, the use of this weapon could provoke serious responses from Moscow that have consequences for the rest of the world. Trump should not be so short-sighted in his attempts to pressure Putin — he is playing a risky game.
The Tomahawk is an incredible weapon, with great offensive capabilities. Russia is naturally opposed to this weapon expanding Ukraine's arsenal, which is why Trump may use it to leverage Putin into ending the conflict, as was pledged before he entered office.
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There'sThe adifference 10%between chanceRussia and Ukraine in this war is that thereUkraine willdoes benot astrike US-civilian targets as Russia warhas beforeroutinely 2050done in the course of this conflict. As such, accordingif Ukraine were to thereceive MetaculusTomahawks, predictionthey communitywould be strictly used on military targets and to further its military aims.
There's a 10% chance that there will be a US-Russia war before 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
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