An illegal coup attempt is underway forcing Rajoelina to flee the country, as rogue military units abandon their duty and join violent protesters threatening national stability. Elite forces are coordinating an armed takeover while the president maintains control and offers dialogue to resolve the crisis peacefully. The military breakdown endangers Madagascar's democratic institutions and threatens to plunge the nation into chaos.
Rajoelina's fleeing the country is cause for hope for a nation on the brink of collapse. With protests mounting and soldiers refusing to act, his resignation could prevent bloodshed and give Madagascar a chance for a fresh start. Rather than clinging to power, his resignation opens the door for a transitional government, renewed national dialogue, and the prospect of stability that has long been elusive.
There's a 13% chance that there will be a successful coup d’état in Africa before December 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
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