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Snapshot 8:Mon, Oct 13, 2025 5:58:43 PM GMT last edited by Kani

Madagascar: President Flees Country as Military Turns Against Him

Madagascar: President WarnsFlees ofCountry Coupas AttemptMilitary asTurns SoldiersAgainst Join ProtestsHim

Madagascar: President Flees Country as Military Turns Against Him
Above: A Malagasy soldier walks surrounded by protesters in Antananarivo, on Oct. 11, 2025. Image credit: Luis Tato/Getty Images

The Spin

An illegal coup attempt is underway forcing Rajoelina to flee the country, as rogue military units abandon their duty and join violent protesters threatening national stability. Elite forces are coordinating an armed takeover while the president maintains control and offers dialogue to resolve the crisis peacefully. The military breakdown endangers Madagascar's democratic institutions and threatens to plunge the nation into chaos.

MadagascarRajoelina's militaryfleeing the country is standingcause withfor thehope peoplefor against a brutalnation regimeon thatthe hasbrink killedof atcollapse. leastWith 22protests protesters.mounting Soldiersand aresoldiers refusing orders to shootact, theirhis ownresignation citizenscould prevent bloodshed and joininggive demonstrationsMadagascar aftera witnessingchance policefor violencea includingfresh severestart. beatingsRather caughtthan onclinging video.to Thepower, president'shis appointmentresignation ofopens militarythe officersdoor tofor a transitional government, revealsrenewed desperationnational dialogue, asand histhe authoritarianprospect crackdownof failsstability that has long been elusive.

Metaculus Prediction

There's a 13% chance that there will be a successful coup d’état in Africa before December 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


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All rights reserved.

Version 6.18.0