An illegal coup attempt is underway, as rogue military units abandon their duty and join violent protesters threatening national stability. Elite forces are coordinating an armed takeover while the president maintains control and offers dialogue to resolve the crisis peacefully. The military breakdown endangers Madagascar's democratic institutions and threatens to plunge the nation into chaos.
There's a 13% chance that there will be a successful coup d’état in Africa before December 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
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