An illegal coup attempt is underway, as rogue military units abandon their duty and join violent protesters threatening national stability. Elite forces are coordinating an armed takeover while the president maintains control and offers dialogue to resolve the crisis peacefully. The military breakdown endangers Madagascar's democratic institutions and threatens to plunge the nation into chaos.
Madagascar's military is heroically standing with the people against a brutal regime that has killed at least 22 protesters. Soldiers are refusing orders to shoot their own citizens and joining demonstrations after witnessing police violence including severe beatings caught on video. The president's appointment of military officers to government showsreveals desperation, as his authoritarian crackdown fails.
There's a 13% chance that there will be a successful coup d’état in Africa before December 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
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