Lloyd Austin

Mark Milley

Mike Minihan

Jacob Thornburg

Michael Brenner

Finian Cunningham

Scott Ritter

Ray Dalio

Kevin Rudd

Zhao Tong

Stanislaw Koziej

Robert S. Ross

Charles C. Krulak

Michael C. Horowitz

Joseph S. Nye

Qin Gang

Frank Kendall III

Thomas L. Friedman

Marco J. Lyons

"I argue that war is unlikely to occur due to the deep economic ties underlying the great power politics between the two countries."

"War with either [Russia or China] is neither inevitable nor imminent."

"As things currently stand, the US is not prepared to fight and win a war with China over Taiwan."

"A war between the US and China today is no more inevitable than was war between the rising US and the declining United Kingdom a century ago."

"[T]he tension between the United States and China will grow, and competition will intensify; it is inevitable. War, however, is not."

"War is a risk, but it is not inevitable."

"The risk of a military conflict is very serious."

"The smallest misstep by either side [Taipei and Beijing] could ignite a U.S.-China war."

"China is preparing for a war and specifically for a war with the United States."

"The most proximate potential timeframe for war is in the next two years."

"My gut tells me we [the US] will fight [with China] in 2025."

Will There Be a US-China War?

Centre for Economics and Business Research

Capital Economics

S&P Global

Goldman Sachs

George Magnus

Eswar Prasad

Nathan Sheets

Desmond Lachman

Statista

Rob Subbaraman

JCER

Chris Giles

"China's nominal gross domestic product is unlikely to surpass that of the U.S. in the next few decades."

"This idea of China becoming the world's biggest economy may not happen, actually."

"China probably won't ever overtake the US economy on a sustained basis."

"The likelihood of the prediction that China's GDP will one day overtake that of the U.S. is declining."

"If China grows by a more moderate 4% over the long term, its GDP will exceed that of the US eight years later, in 2046."

"China is forecast to overtake the U.S. as the world’s largest economy by around 2035."

"[T]he size of China's economy in USD terms will overtake the US in 2028."

"China will overtake the United States to become the world's biggest economy in 2028."

Will China's GDP Overtake the US, And If So When?

Andrew Ng

Eric Schmidt

Chuck Schumer

Brad Smith

Nestor Maslej

Ruth Porat

Ylli Bajraktari

Bruegel

National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence

Brandon J. Weichert

Clement Delangue

Zhou Hongyi

Joseph Tsai

Huey-Meei Chang

Craig S. Smith

Jeffrey Ding

Ray Perrault

Susana Martinez

Niall Ferguson

Larry Elliot

Marcel Munch

Pavel Durov

John Rush

"I think, today, [China is] probably two years behind the top [AI] models [from the US]."

"Where China sits [in AI], I think, is very far behind the US."

"The United States is in a strong position to win the essential [AI] race with China."

"China will dominate AI."

"The combination with China's self-made chips + AI infrastructure stack will put China ahead of the US."

China would "undoubtedly come out on top [in the US-China AI race]."

"[I]t seems like the United States is really far ahead [when it comes to generative AI]."

"China will lead the world in AI development."

In 2025, "China will start to lead the AI race (as a consequence of leading the open-source AI race)."

Will China Surpass the US in AI?

U.S. President Donald Trump downplayed rising U.S.-China tensions on Sunday after <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.verity.news/story/2025/china-imposes-new-export-controls-on-rare-earth-materials">Beijing imposed rare earth export controls</a> and he announced 100% tariffs on China from Nov. 1. China warned on the same day that it was “not afraid” of a trade war.

The Washington Examiner

U.S. President Donald Trump downplayed rising U.S.-China tensions on Sunday after Beijing imposed rare earth export controls and he announced 100% tariffs on China from Nov. 1. China warned on the same day that it was “not afraid” of a trade war.

Criticizing America's imposition of 100% tariffs on China and export controls on critical software, Beijing said it would respond to protect its legitimate rights. Trump later posted on Truth Social saying, “Don’t worry about China, it will all be fine!"

Global Times

New York Post

BBC News

Criticizing America's imposition of 100% tariffs on China and export controls on critical software, Beijing said it would respond to protect its legitimate rights. Trump later posted on Truth Social saying, “Don’t worry about China, it will all be fine!"

Defending its export control on rare earths, China urged the U.S. to manage differences through dialogue and based on mutual respect. The Chinese commerce ministry said “China’s stance is consistent,” and that it didn't want a tariff war.

People's Daily

The Washington Times

Defending its export control on rare earths, China urged the U.S. to manage differences through dialogue and based on mutual respect. The Chinese commerce ministry said “China’s stance is consistent,” and that it didn't want a tariff war.

Following Trump's imposition of tariffs and export controls, Beijing said Washington was raising trade tensions between the two countries. Trump, meanwhile, accused Beijing of holding "the world captive” by controlling critical materials.

Guardian

News.com.au

Following Trump's imposition of tariffs and export controls, Beijing said Washington was raising trade tensions between the two countries. Trump, meanwhile, accused Beijing of holding "the world captive” by controlling critical materials.

With reference to rare earths, a spokesperson for China's commerce ministry said its "export controls are not export bans" and that "compliant export for civil use" will be allowed. China controls about 70% of global rare earths mining.

XINHUA

FOX News

With reference to rare earths, a spokesperson for China's commerce ministry said its "export controls are not export bans" and that "compliant export for civil use" will be allowed. China controls about 70% of global rare earths mining.

China dubbed the U.S. move an example of "double standards," pointing to its export control list of over 3,000 items compared to China's 900. U.S. Vice President JD Vance has called China’s supply chain dominance "the definition of a national emergency."

Straight Arrow News

China dubbed the U.S. move an example of "double standards," pointing to its export control list of over 3,000 items compared to China's 900. U.S. Vice President JD Vance has called China’s supply chain dominance "the definition of a national emergency."

U.S. President Donald Trump downplayed rising U.S.-China tensions Sunday after Beijing imposed rare earth export controls and he announced 100% tariffs on China from Nov. 1. China warned on Sunday that it was “not afraid” of a trade war.

AA #

The Washington Examiner #

U.S. President Donald Trump downplayed rising U.S.-China tensions Sunday after Beijing imposed rare earth export controls and he announced 100% tariffs on China from Nov. 1. China warned on Sunday that it was “not afraid” of a trade war.

Criticizing US's imposition of 100% tariffs on China and impose export controls on critical software, China said it would respond to protect its legitimate rights. Trump later posted on Truth Social saying, “Don’t worry about China, it will all be fine!"

Global Times #

New York Post #

BBC News #

Criticizing US's imposition of 100% tariffs on China and impose export controls on critical software, China said it would respond to protect its legitimate rights. Trump later posted on Truth Social saying, “Don’t worry about China, it will all be fine!"

People's Daily #

The Washington Times #

Following Trump's imposition of tariffs and export controls, Beijing said Washington, D.C., was raising trade tensions between the two countries. Trump, meanwhile, accused Beijing of holding "the world captive” by controlling critical materials.

Guardian #

News.com.au #

Following Trump's imposition of tariffs and export controls, Beijing said Washington, D.C., was raising trade tensions between the two countries. Trump, meanwhile, accused Beijing of holding "the world captive” by controlling critical materials.

XINHUA #

FOX News #

China dubbed the U.S. move "double standards," pointing to its export control list of over 3,000 items compared to China's 900. U.S. Vice President JD Vance called China’s supply chain dominance "the definition of a national emergency."

Straight Arrow News #

China dubbed the U.S. move "double standards," pointing to its export control list of over 3,000 items compared to China's 900. U.S. Vice President JD Vance called China’s supply chain dominance "the definition of a national emergency."

China’s defiance masks deep vulnerability. With one-fifth of its workforce tied to exports and growth chained to foreign demand, Xi faces rising joblessness and fading leverage. His threats ring hollow as U.S. tariffs bite and allies drift away — revealing an economy too brittle to withstand a prolonged cold war.

China’s defiance masks deep vulnerability. With one-fifth of its workforce tied to exports and growth chained to foreign demand, Xi faces rising joblessness and fading leverage. His threats ring hollow as U.S. tariffs bite and allies drift away — revealing an economy too brittle to withstand a prolonged cold war.

Financial Times

Financial Times #

Trump talks tough with China but holds out hope of truce in trade war

New York Post #5213

China will struggle to survive a protracted battle with the US and the West

Washington’s tariff bluster now rings hollow. Having weaponized trade to bully allies and rivals alike, the U.S. finds its coercion exposed as self-defeating—isolating it from partners, eroding trust, and shrinking its sway in global commerce. “America First” has curdled into “America Alone.”

Washington’s tariff bluster now rings hollow. Having weaponized trade to bully allies and rivals alike, the U.S. finds its coercion exposed as self-defeating—isolating it from partners, eroding trust, and shrinking its sway in global commerce. “America First” has curdled into “America Alone.”

MOFCOM slams US' planned 100% additional tariff, says willful threats not right way to get along with China

Opinion: U.S. abuse of tariffs has already backfired

There is a 20% chance that China and the EU will reach a trade or tariff agreement in 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

There is a 20% chance that China and the EU will reach a trade or tariff agreement in 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Metaculus

Metaculus #

The US-China Conflict

AFP/Getty Images

Trump Strikes Conciliatory Note After Beijing Responds to 100% Tariff Threat

AFP/Getty Images

Trump Strikes Conciliatory Note After Beijing Responds to 100% Tariff Threat

United States of America

China

Economic conditions & trends

Mining

China’s defiance masks deep vulnerability. With one-fifth of its workforce tied to exports, and growth chained to foreign demand, Xi faces rising joblessness and fading leverage. His threats ring hollow as U.S. tariffs bite and allies drift away, revealing an economy too brittle to withstand a prolonged cold war.

China’s defiance masks deep vulnerability. With one-fifth of its workforce tied to exports, and growth chained to foreign demand, Xi faces rising joblessness and fading leverage. His threats ring hollow as U.S. tariffs bite and allies drift away, revealing an economy too brittle to withstand a prolonged cold war.

Washington’s tariff bluster now rings hollow. Having weaponized trade to bully allies and rivals alike, the U.S. finds its coercion exposed as self-defeating — isolating it from partners, eroding trust, and shrinking its sway in global commerce. “America First” has curdled into “America Alone.”

Washington’s tariff bluster now rings hollow. Having weaponized trade to bully allies and rivals alike, the U.S. finds its coercion exposed as self-defeating — isolating it from partners, eroding trust, and shrinking its sway in global commerce. “America First” has curdled into “America Alone.”

There's a 20% chance that China and the EU will reach a trade or tariff agreement in 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

There's a 20% chance that China and the EU will reach a trade or tariff agreement in 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

'Don't Worry About China,' Says Trump as Beijing Responds to 100% Tariff Threats

'Don't Worry About China,' Says Trump as Beijing Responds to 100% Tariff Threats

'Don't Worry About China,' Says Trump as Beijing Responds to 100% Tariff Threats

Trump'Don't StrikesWorry ConciliatoryAbout NoteChina,' AfterSays Trump as Beijing Responds to 100% Tariff ThreatThreats

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'Don't Worry About China,' Says Trump as Beijing Responds to 100% Tariff Threats

Trump'Don't StrikesWorry ConciliatoryAbout NoteChina,' AfterSays Trump as Beijing Responds to 100% Tariff ThreatThreats

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Thornburg

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Rudd

Nye

Tong

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III

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JCER

Magnus

Economics

Prasad

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Subbaraman

Research

Tsai

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Smith

Rush

Munch

Hongyi

Maslej

Martinez

Delangue

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