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Snapshot 2:Mon, Sep 22, 2025 5:01:11 PM GMT last edited by Kevin

Germany: AfD Hits 26% in Polls, Surpasses CDU/CSU in Latest Survey

Germany: AfD ReachesHits Historic26% Highin Polls, TiesSurpasses CDU/CSU in GermanLatest PollsSurvey

Germany: AfD Hits 26% in Polls, Surpasses CDU/CSU in Latest Survey
Above: Alice Weidel (AfD) walks to the lectern in the Bundestag in Berlin, Germany on May 14, 2025. Image copyright: Michael Kappeler/picture alliance/Getty Images

The Spin

The AfD’s surgerise reflectsis widespreadrattling voterGermany's concerngoverning overcoalition immigration,and crimeintensifying anddomestic freedompolitical oftensions, speechgaining thatground mainstreamin partieswestern havestates ignored.and Acrosspressuring Europe,the citizensCDU/CSU–SPD arecoalition abandoningon liberalimmigration, establishmentssecurity forand partiesgovernance. thatAt prioritizethe nationalsame securitytime, andleaders borderlike control,Alice fromWeidel France’sadvocate Nationalcloser Rallyties towith Austria’sMoscow FPÖ and theoppose UK’said Reformto PartyUkraine, showingraising thatconcerns theabout AfDGermany’s addressesforeign criticalpolicy issuesalignment otherwhile partiesfueling failpolarization toat tacklehome.

The AfD’s risesurge isreflects rattlingwidespread Germany'svoter governingconcern coalitionacross andthe intensifyingcountry domesticover political tensionsimmigration, gainingcrime groundand infreedom westernof statesspeech andthat pressuringmainstream theparties CDU/CSU–SPDhave coalitionignored. onAcross immigrationEurope, security,citizens andare governance.abandoning Atliberal theestablishments samefor time,parties leadersthat likeprioritize Alicenational Weidelsecurity advocateand closerborder tiescontrol, withfrom MoscowFrance’s andNational opposeRally aid to Ukraine,Austria’s raisingFPÖ concernsand aboutthe GermanyUK’s foreignReform policyParty, alignmentshowing whilethat fuelingthe polarizationAfD ataddresses homecritical issues other parties fail to tackle.

Metaculus Prediction

There is a 20% chance that Germany's Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU) party will announce that it's open to negotiating a coalition with the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


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All rights reserved.

Version 6.15.2