Estonia Claims Russian Jets Violate Airspace

Published SEP 19 2025·Updated SEP 23 2025

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Above: Estonia Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna talks to the press on May 15, 2025. Image credit: OZAN KOSE/AFP/Getty Images

The Spin

Russia's aggression — airspace violations in multiple NATO countries and exercises in Belarus mimicking its pre-Ukraine invasion activities — signals intent to escalate beyond Ukraine. Battle-hardened from Ukraine, Putin could invade the Nordic-Baltic region in 2-5two to five years, threatening all of Europe. NATO has a narrow window to bolster defenses, meet 5% GDP targets and implement its Rapid Adoption Action Plan, or else it will be caught off guard.

The Telegraph Atlantic Council

Russia's military exercises aren't aggression; even U.S. President Trump suggested the Polish drone incidents were due to them being disabled, thus sending them off course. Meanwhile, Western sanctions on Russia's oil buyers like India and China could backfire, spiking EU inflation, collapsing trade, and fracturing NATO unity. Instead of ramping up for war, the alliance risks self-weakening by alienating key partners and ignoring peace talks.

Russia Today TASS

Metaculus Prediction

There's a 10% chance that there will be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO country before 2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.