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Snapshot 3:Fri, Sep 19, 2025 7:17:56 PM GMT last edited by Brian

Estonia Claims Russian Jets Violate Airspace

Estonia Claims Russian Jets Violate Estonian Airspace as NATO Tensions Rise

Above: American aircrew during a war-fighting simulation in Gloucestershire, England, on Sept. 19, 2025. Image credit: Ben Birchall/PA Images/Getty Images

The Spin

WesternRussia's accusationsaggression of deliberate airspace violations ignorein technicalmultiple explanationsNATO countries and representexercises anotherin manufacturedBelarus crisismimicking toits justifypre-Ukraine militaryinvasion escalation.activities The dronesignals incidentsintent resultedto escalate beyond Ukraine. Battle-hardened from navigationUkraine, systemPutin jammingcould duringinvade legitimatethe strikesNordic-Baltic onregion Ukrainianin targets2-5 years, withthreatening noall plannedof violationsEurope. ofNATO Polishhas territory.a Thesenarrow overreactionswindow serve to demonizebolster Russiadefenses, meet 5% GDP targets and sabotageimplement diplomaticits solutionsRapid Adoption Action Plan, or else it will be caught off guard.

Russia's military exercises aren't aggression; even U.S. President Trump suggested the Polish drone incidents were due to being disabled, thus sending them off course. Meanwhile, Western sanctions on Russia's oil buyers like India and China could backfire, spiking EU inflation, collapsing trade, and fracturing NATO unity. Instead of ramping up for war, the alliance risks self-weakening by alienating key partners and ignoring peace talks.

Metaculus Prediction

There's a 10% chance that there will be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO country before 2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


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All rights reserved.

Version 6.18.0