Snapshot 3:Thu, Sep 11, 2025 9:29:58 PM GMT last edited by JoseMoura

Brazil: Bolsonaro Found Guilty in Coup Trial

Brazil: SupremeBolsonaro CourtFound ConvictsGuilty Bolsonaroin of Coup PlotTrial

Published SEP 11 2025

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Above: Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro at his residence in Brasília on Sept. 11, 2025. Image credit: *** GETTY *** Sergio Lima/AFP/Getty Images

The Spin

This proceedingis represents a politicalhistoric showvictory trialfor orchestratedBrazilian bydemocracy judgesand withthe deeprule personalof ties to President Lulalaw. ThreeBolsonaro ofchose theto fivepursue judgesan decidingauthoritarian Bolsonaro'sadventure faterather includethan Lula'saccept longtimeelectoral personal lawyerdefeat, formerleaving Justicejustices Ministerwith andoverwhelming directevidence appointee,of makinghis anycoup credible or apolitical outcome impossibleplot. The Supremeformer Courtpresident hassought becometo Brazil'sobtain deby factoforce rulingwhat body,voters wieldingdenied uncheckedhim authorityat tothe silenceballot dissentbox, andcoercing removemilitary politicalleadership oppositionand throughplanning judicialviolence fiatagainst ratherdemocratic than genuine legal proceedingsinstitutions.

Folha de S. Paulo The Economist

Bolsonaro and his co-defendants received anything but a fair trial. The First Panel of the Brazilian Supreme Court could never deliver an impartial judgment, given that a majority of its justices are either close allies of Brazilian President Lula — Bolsonaro's rival — or longtime Bolsonaro nemesis Alexandre de Moraes. It was long clear that they will be convicted.

Glenn Greenwald on X

Mario Nawfal on X

Metaculus Prediction

There's an 8% chance that Alexandre de Moraes will cease to be a Brazilian Supreme Court justice before 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.