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Ethiopia Opens Africa's Largest Dam Amid Regional Tensions

Ethiopia Opens Africa's Largest Dam Amid Regional Tensions

Ethiopia Opens Africa's Largest Dam Amid Regional Tensions
Above: **Watermarked Getty Image. Kindly Replace** A general view of GERD during its official inauguration ceremony in Guba, on Sept. 9, 2025. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed called it a "great achievement for all black people" despite years of rancour. Image credit: Luis Tato/AFP/Getty Images

The Spin

Egypt'sAgainst oppositionall toodds theand damwithout stemsexternal fromfunding, legitimateEthiopia concernshas aboutbirthed waterthe securityGrand forEthiopian overRenaissance 100Dam million peoplea whomonument dependto onunwavering thedetermination Nileand forcollective 90%sacrifice. ofBuilt theirentirely freshwaterthrough needs.grassroots Thecontributions projectfrom violatesfarmers colonial-erato waterdiaspora, treatiesit andwill internationalliberate law60 bymillion proceedingpeople withoutfrom bindingenergy agreementspoverty onwhile droughttransforming managementAfrica's andhydroelectric water sharinglandscape. YearsA ofnation failed negotiations prove Ethiopia has consistentlyliterally rejectedpowered reasonableits safeguardsown that would protect downstream nations during severe droughts when reservoir levels matter mostrenaissance.

Ethiopia's reckless pursuit of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam exposes dangerous unilateralism that threatens regional stability. Built without downstream consent, this $5 billion gamble with the Nile's lifeblood imperils millions in water-starved Egypt and war-torn Sudan. National pride cannot justify potentially catastrophic consequences for vulnerable neighbors dependent on these sacred waters.

Metaculus Prediction

There is a 38% chance that state-based conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia will cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


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