Like children fighting in a playground, the U.S. may let Russia and Ukraine continue to go at it for a while longer as neither side seems ready to make the concessions needed for peace. From President Trump's point of view, that is stupid and undesirable as thousands of soldiers on both sides are dying every week.
From the outset of the conflict, Russia has stated that advancement of NATO into Ukraine was a primary driver of the fighting. As such, Russia views discussions to deploy troops from NATO countries in Ukraine as part of security guarantees negatively as this would only exacerbate the problem, rather than deal with the root causes.
For months, Russia has brought up "root causes" as a go-to talking point. But this is a red herring that ignores Russia's aggression and is simply a cover for its desire to turn Ukraine into a subservient vassal state with a puppet government that does its bidding, disregarding Ukraine's sovereignty.
There's a 50% chance there will be a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine by September 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
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