Metaculus

Will SpaceX land people on Mars before 2030?

Donald Trump

Elon Musk

NASA

Vanessa E. Wyche

Yuri Shprits

Serkan Saydam

Bill Nelson

Greg Autry

David Whitehouse

James W. Head

Christina Koch

Dylan Taylor

William Shatner

Gwynne Shotwell

Brian Cox

Anca Selariu

Martin Redfern

Michael López-Alegría

Neil deGrasse Tyson

"I don't know how it's possible [to colonize Mars]."

"I don't see it [the possibility of humans colonizing Mars] happening anytime soon."

"I don't think we'll get to Mars in my lifetime."

"I believe a colony on Mars is going to happen, but between 2040 and 2050."

"We are not going to see the first people going to Mars until the 2040s."

"Our [NASA's] plan is for humans to walk on Mars by 2040."

People will be put on Mars "in this decade."

"[W]e want to reach Mars before the end of my term."

"I think 5 years is possible [to have human existence on Mars] and 10 years is highly likely."

Will Humans Land on Mars, and When?

<span>The Italian payloads will include a plant growth experiment, a meteorological monitoring station, and a radiation sensor designed to collect scientific data during the six-month interplanetary flight and on the Martian surface.</span

Space.com

Italian Space Agency

The Italian payloads will include a plant growth experiment, a meteorological monitoring station, and a radiation sensor designed to collect scientific data during the six-month interplanetary flight and on the Martian surface.

<span>SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell confirmed the first-of-its-kind agreement, stating that SpaceX is now offering Starship services to the red planet with more developments expected.</span

Teodoro Valente on X

Gwynne Shotwell on X

SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell confirmed the first-of-its-kind agreement, stating that SpaceX is now offering Starship services to the red planet with more developments expected.

<span>Starship stands 403 feet tall and is the world's largest and most powerful rocket with a payload capacity of up to 150 metric tons, though it has not yet reached Earth orbit successfully.</span

Barrons

PHYS

Starship stands 403 feet tall and is the world's largest and most powerful rocket with a payload capacity of up to 150 metric tons, though it has not yet reached Earth orbit successfully.

<span>SpaceX has conducted multiple Starship test flights in 2025, with the upper stage exploding during the three most recent missions in January, March, and May, while Flight 10 is expected this month.</span

Mashable India

SpaceX has conducted multiple Starship test flights in 2025, with the upper stage exploding during the three most recent missions in January, March, and May, while Flight 10 is expected this month.

<span>Minister Adolfo Urso described the agreement as confirmation of Italy's strategy to strengthen national industry and consolidate the country's presence in major space exploration programs.</span

AI Invest

Minister Adolfo Urso described the agreement as confirmation of Italy's strategy to strengthen national industry and consolidate the country's presence in major space exploration programs.

Metaculus #0

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SpaceX Agrees To Take Italian Experiments To Mars

Space

Italy

SpaceX's track record raises serious concerns about mission reliability, with Starship failing to reach orbit despite multiple attempts and recent test explosions. The rocket hasn't successfully completed a single orbital mission, making promises of Mars flights seem premature and potentially risky for valuable scientific payloads.

<span>SpaceX's track record raises serious concerns about mission reliability, with Starship failing to reach orbit despite multiple attempts and recent test explosions. The rocket hasn't successfully completed a single orbital mission, making promises of Mars flights seem premature and potentially risky for valuable scientific payloads.</span>

SpaceX agrees to take Italian experiments to Mars

Italy Signs Deal for Mars Experiments on SpaceX Starship

Italy Signs Deal for Mars Experiments on SpaceX Starship

SpaceXItaly AgreesSigns ToDeal Takefor ItalianMars Experiments Toon MarsSpaceX Starship

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Italy Signs Deal for Mars Experiments on SpaceX Starship

SpaceXItaly AgreesSigns ToDeal Takefor ItalianMars Experiments Toon MarsSpaceX Starship

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Shotwell

Trump

Musk

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