These tariffs represent a necessary correction to decades of unfair trade practices that have disadvantaged American workers and businesses. The "reciprocal" approach ensures trading partners face the same barriers they impose on U.S. exports, creating a level playing field that will boost domestic manufacturing and generate hundreds of billions in revenue for America.
The sweeping tariffs risk significant economic damage through higher consumer prices, supply chain disruptions, and reduced economic efficiency that could fuel inflation and slow long-term growth. Small businesses will bear the brunt of these costs while the complex implementation creates uncertainty that undermines business planning and investment decisions.
There is a 70% chance customs duties revenue to the federal government will increase from $80 billion in fiscal year 2023 to $160 billion in fiscal year 2026 (in 2023 dollars), according to the Metaculus prediction community.