Trump lambasts ‘Russian war machine’ as special envoy set to visit Moscow for cease-fire talks
New York Post4 days
Trump's diplomatic pressure through Witkoff is a serious attempt to end the Ukraine war through economic leverage. The threat of severe tariffs on Russian oil buyers, such as China and India, could significantly impact Russia's revenue streams. This approach combines direct diplomacy with economic consequences, potentially forcing Putin to negotiate.
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There'sPutin aappears 50%to chancebe thatusing Vladimirthese Putinmeetings willto ceasebuy totime holdwhile thecontinuing officemilitary ofoperations presidentin Ukraine. Russian forces continue striking civilian targets and advancing territorially despite diplomatic talks. The Kremlin shows no signs of Russiamaking bymeaningful February 2030concessions, accordingsuggesting tothese themeetings Metaculusserve predictionPutin's communitystalling strategy rather than genuine peace efforts.
Moscow supports a peaceful resolution and a lasting peace, not a temporary truce. However, any deal must reflect on-the-ground realities and root causes. Additionally, Ukraine must recognize the loss of five regions, withdraw troops, adopt neutrality, and reduce its military. A ceasefire could follow if Ukraine halts its mobilization and foreign arms supplies.
There's a 50% chance that Vladimir Putin will cease to hold the office of president of Russia by February 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.