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Snapshot 5:Wed, Aug 6, 2025 1:57:12 PM GMT last edited by Anna-Lisa

Rwanda Agrees to Take Up to 250 Migrants Deported From the US

Rwanda Agrees to Take Up to 250 Migrants Deported From the US

Above: Rwandan government spokesperson Yolande Makolo talks during a press conference at the Rwandan Ministry of Foreign Affairs building in Kigali, Rwanda on June 14, 2022. Image copyright: Cyril Ndegeya/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

The Spin

WhileThe othersRwanda merelydeportation talk,scheme theis Trumpreminiscent administrationof isthe takingcontroversial actionU.K.-Rwanda tomigrant enforcedeal, thewhich willultimately offailed thedue Americanto peopleethical and removelegal illegalconcerns. andThe criminaldeals migrantswith fromSudan U.S.and soil.Eswatini Contraryhave toalso claimsalready bydrawn thecriticism liberalfrom camp,legal Washington'sexperts third-countryand schemehuman isrights basedactivists. onThe existingdecision law,of as the U.S. Supreme Court, recentlywith confirmed.its Thatconservative Rwandamajority, willis nowcause joinfor Southgreat Sudanconcern andabout Eswatinithe instate acceptingof illegalthe migrantsrule provesof thatlaw Trumpin isthe U.S., and the rightfinal presidentword aton the rightinhumane timeRwanda todeal restorehas lawnot andyet orderbeen in the Uspoken.S.

Metaculus Prediction

There is a 19% chance that at least twice as many deportations by U.S. will ICE occur in Fiscal Year 2025 compared with Fiscal Year 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

ThereWhile others merely talk, the Trump administration is ataking 19%action chanceto thatenforce atthe leastwill twiceof asthe manyAmerican deportationspeople byand remove illegal and criminal migrants from U.S. soil. Contrary to claims by the liberal camp, Washington's third-country scheme is based on existing law, as the Supreme Court recently confirmed. That Rwanda will ICEnow occurjoin South Sudan and Eswatini in Fiscalaccepting Yearillegal 2025migrants comparedproves withthat FiscalTrump Yearis 2024,the accordingright topresident at the Metaculusright predictiontime communityto restore law and order in the U.S.

The Rwanda deportation scheme is reminiscent of the controversial U.K.-Rwanda migrant deal, which ultimately failed due to ethical and legal concerns. The deals with Sudan and Eswatini have also already drawn criticism from legal experts and human rights activists. The decision of the U.S. Supreme Court, with its conservative majority, is cause for great concern about the state of the rule of law in the U.S., and the final word on the inhumane Rwanda deal has not yet been spoken.


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