Metaculus

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Alexander Lukashenko

William Burns

Dmitry Peskov

Fiona Hill

Sergei Markov

Oleksiy Reznikov

James Stavridis

Dmitry Medvedev

Barry Posen

James Acton

Kevin Ryan

Nicolo Fasola

Matthew Bunn

Steven Pifer

Harry Kazianis

Mikhail Kasyanov

Robert Gates

Mitt Romney

Alexey Zaitsev

Pat Buchanan

Nina Khrushcheva

William Alberque

Fabian Hoffmann

Stephen I. Schwartz

Olga Oliker

Ira Helfand

"I think it's extremely unlikely that he [Putin] would move in that [using tactical nuclear weapons] direction in the current conflict."

"I don't see Putin deciding to use a nuclear weapon."

"There are reasons to believe Moscow would not press the nuclear button."

"Though it is unlikely that Russia will use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, the risks are real."

Putin has sent many signals that "he will use battlefield nuclear weapons from his arsenal of 6,000 such weapons to win the war."

"Well, yes, he [Putin] would [launch a nuclear attack]."

Would Putin Detonate Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine?

Donald Trump

Marco Rubio

J.D. Vance

Esmaeil Baghaei

Rafael Mariano Grossi

John Ratcliffe

Tulsi Gabbard

Nicole Grajewski


Nicholas L. Miller

Spencer Faragasso

Eyal Zamir


Stephen D. Mull


Darya Dolzikova

Andrea Stricker

Sean Parnell

David Albright

Israel Atomic Energy Commission

"If it [the stockpile of enriched uranium] is intact and Iran is able to keep it that way, they could potentially use it in a new covert enrichment facility to produce material for several nuclear weapons in a matter of months."

"I can say to the American people with great confidence that they [Iranians] are much further away from a nuclear program today than they were 24 hours ago."

"Our nuclear installations have been badly damaged, that's for sure."

"Israel's and U.S. attacks have effectively destroyed Iran's centrifuge enrichment program."

"The American strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities, combined with Israeli strikes on other elements of Iran's military nuclear program, has set back Iran's ability to develop nuclear weapons by many years."

"Iran's key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated."

Have US Strikes Set Back Iran's Nuclear Program?

<span>The atomic bombing of Hiroshima on August 6, 1945, killed an estimated 140,000 people by the end of the year, while a second bomb dropped on Nagasaki three days later killed approximately 70,000 people.</span

Japan Today

Fox4Kc

The atomic bombing of Hiroshima on August 6, 1945, killed an estimated 140,000 people by the end of the year, while a second bomb dropped on Nagasaki three days later killed approximately 70,000 people.

<span>A record 120 countries and regions attended the memorial ceremony at Hiroshima's Peace Memorial Park, including representatives from nuclear powers such as the United States and United Kingdom.</span

A record 120 countries and regions attended the memorial ceremony at Hiroshima's Peace Memorial Park, including representatives from nuclear powers such as the United States and United Kingdom.

<span>The number of officially recognized atomic bomb survivors, known as hibakusha, has fallen below 100,000 for the first time, with 99,130 survivors remaining as of March 2025 and an average age exceeding 86 years.</span

The Japan Times

The number of officially recognized atomic bomb survivors, known as hibakusha, has fallen below 100,000 for the first time, with 99,130 survivors remaining as of March 2025 and an average age exceeding 86 years.

<span>Hiroshima Mayor Kazumi Matsui warned against growing acceptance of military buildups and nuclear weapons for national security amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine and Middle East conflicts during his Peace Declaration speech.</span

EuroNews

Hiroshima Mayor Kazumi Matsui warned against growing acceptance of military buildups and nuclear weapons for national security amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine and Middle East conflicts during his Peace Declaration speech.

<span>Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba reiterated Japan's mission as the only country to experience atomic bombings to lead international efforts toward a nuclear-free world while maintaining Japan's three non-nuclear principles.</span

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba reiterated Japan's mission as the only country to experience atomic bombings to lead international efforts toward a nuclear-free world while maintaining Japan's three non-nuclear principles.

Metaculus #0

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Hiroshima marks 80th anniversary since US atomic bombing of the city

Japan

Nuclear weapons

United States of America

The nuclear weapons used against Hiroshima and Nagasaki represent humanity's darkest moment and must never be repeated, as emphasized by survivors whose testimony serves as a moral force for peace. The growing global acceptance of nuclear deterrence today flagrantly disregards the lessons learned from these tragedies and threatens international peace frameworks.

<span>The nuclear weapons used against Hiroshima and Nagasaki represent humanity's darkest moment and must never be repeated, as emphasized by survivors whose testimony serves as a moral force for peace. The growing global acceptance of nuclear deterrence today flagrantly disregards the lessons learned from these tragedies and threatens international peace frameworks.</span>

Secretary Generals Message The Hiroshima Peace Memorial The 80Th Anniversary Of The Atomic Bombing Of Hiroshim

Hiroshima Marks 80th Anniversary of Atomic Bombing

Hiroshima Marks 80th Anniversary of Atomic Bombing

Hiroshima marksMarks 80th anniversaryAnniversary since US atomic bombing of theAtomic cityBombing

The Spin

The Controversies

Romney

Stavridis

Pifer

Alberque

Buchanan

Hill

Miller

Vance

Baghaei

Albright

Commission

Trump

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Hiroshima Marks 80th Anniversary of Atomic Bombing

Hiroshima marksMarks 80th anniversaryAnniversary since US atomic bombing of theAtomic cityBombing

The Spin

The Controversies

Romney

Stavridis

Pifer

Alberque

Buchanan

Hill

Miller

Vance

Baghaei

Albright

Commission

Trump

Articles on this story

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