The economy is undergoing a natural adjustment as Trump's policies take effect. Tariff uncertainty has temporarily slowed hiring as businesses adapt to new trade structures, but this reflects prudent corporate planning rather than fundamental weakness. The 3% GDP growth demonstrates underlying economic strength, and the reduction in federal employment aligns with efficiency goals.
The labor market is showing clear signs of deterioration, with job growth at pandemic-era lows and massive downward revisions revealing previously hidden weaknesses. Tariff policies are creating economic uncertainty that's paralyzing business investment and hiring decisions. The statistical GDP boost from import drops masks weak domestic demand and declining business investment.
There's a 23% chance that the U.S. will enter a deflationary period before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.