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Snapshot 3:Fri, Aug 1, 2025 2:34:01 PM GMT last edited by Vandita

Nicaragua Arrests Economic Advisor Bayardo Arce

Nicaragua Arrests Economic Advisor Bayardo Arce in Purge

Above: President of Venezuela Nicolas Maduro and Daniel Ortega (R) at Palacio Federal Legislativo on Jan. 10, 2025, in Caracas, Venezuela. Image copyright: Jesus Vargas/Getty Images

The Spin

ThisThe arrest isrepresents part of a calculatednecessary purgemeasure byof Rosarioaccountability Murillofor tocorruption eliminatewithin veterangovernment revolutionaries who might challenge her succession plansranks. TheArce regimerefused isto systematicallycooperate targetingwith historiclegitimate Sandinistainvestigations commandersinto whoquestionable helpedfinancial bringtransactions Ortegainvolving tostate powerassets. The corruptionAttorney chargesGeneral's appearOffice politicallyfollowed motivatedproper ratherlegal thanprocedures basedby onsummoning genuinehim legaltwice concernsbefore taking action.

This arrest is part of a calculated purge by Rosario Murillo aimed at eliminating veteran revolutionaries who might challenge her succession plans. The regime is systematically targeting historic Sandinista commanders who helped bring Ortega to power. The corruption charges appear politically motivated rather than based on genuine legal concerns.

Metaculus Prediction

There's a 15% chance that Nicaragua will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


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