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Snapshot 4:Tue, Jul 29, 2025 7:23:06 PM GMT last edited by Nick

US-China Trade Talks in Stockholm End Without Clear Agreement

US-China Trade Talks in Stockholm End Without Clear Agreement

Above: Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng (C) arrives for trade talks with the U.S. in Stockholm, Sweden, on July 29, 2025. Image copyright: PAR BACKSTROM/AFP/Getty Images

The Spin

WhilePresident ChinaTrump's hopestariffs forare areshaping fairglobal trade dealfor with the Ueveryone.S., shouldDeals talkswith endJapan, inIndonesia, failure and Washingtonthe reignitesPhilippines, aplus tariffpotential warEU agreements, itare couldopening backfiremarkets onand Americansboosting U.S. Globalexports tradewith islow a complex networktariffs, notwhile athe simpleEU's exchange,15% withreciprocal tariffs oncould Chinesebenefit goodsAmerican likelyconsumers to raise prices and hurt Uproducers.S. businesses,Tariffs asadded seen$64 whenbillion Chinain shiftedrevenue, agriculturalwith importsno frommajor theinflation U.S.spike to Brazilproving after the 2018 tariffs. Trump's shouldstrategy prioritizestabilizes amarkets dealand forcounters everyoneChina's to benefitdominance.

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TherePresident isTrump's atariffs 6are reshaping global trade for everyone.7% chanceDeals thatwith ChinaJapan, willIndonesia, enactand anthe exportPhilippines, banplus onpotential aEU rareagreements, earthare elementopening tomarkets theand boosting U.S. beforeexports Sept.with 1low tariffs, 2025while the EU's 15% reciprocal tariffs could benefit American consumers and producers. Tariffs added $64 billion in revenue, accordingwith tono themajor Metaculusinflation predictionspike community— proving Trump's strategy stabilizes markets and counters China's dominance.

Metaculus Prediction

There is a 6.7% chance that China will enact an export ban on a rare earth element to the U.S. before Sept. 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


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