While this report isn't confirmed, the Trump administration would be right to prioritize crucial trade negotiations with China over a symbolic Taiwan visit. With billions in trade at stake and a potential Trump-Xi summit on the horizon, allowing Lai's stopover would unnecessarily provoke Beijing and derail progress on resolving the tariff war.
Blocking Taiwan's democratically elected president from a routine transit would send a dangerous signal that America can be bullied by Beijing into abandoning longstanding commitments. This would break decades of bipartisan precedent and make Taiwan a bargaining chip in trade negotiations, undermining U.S. credibility with democratic allies.
ThereWhile isthis report isn't confirmed, the Trump administration would be right to prioritize crucial trade negotiations with China over a 6symbolic Taiwan visit.7% chanceWith Chinabillions willin enacttrade anat exportstake banand on a rarepotential earthTrump-Xi elementsummit toon the Unitedhorizon, Statesallowing beforeLai's Sept.stopover 1,would 2025,unnecessarily accordingprovoke toBeijing and derail progress on resolving the Metaculustariff prediction communitywar.
Blocking Taiwan's democratically elected president from a routine transit would send a dangerous signal that America can be bullied by Beijing into abandoning longstanding commitments. This would break decades of bipartisan precedent and make Taiwan a bargaining chip in trade negotiations, undermining U.S. credibility with democratic allies.
There is a 6.7% chance China will enact an export ban on a rare earth element to the United States before Sept. 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.