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Blocking Taiwan's democratically elected president from a routine transit sends a dangerous signal that America can be bullied by Beijing into abandoning longstanding commitments. This breaks decades of bipartisan precedent and makes Taiwan a bargaining chip in trade negotiations, undermining US credibility with democratic allies.
There is a 7% chance China will enact an export ban on a rare earth element to the United States before September 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.