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Snapshot 3:Mon, Jul 28, 2025 2:36:26 PM GMT last edited by Vandita

Thailand, Cambodia Agree to Unconditional Ceasefire

Thailand, Cambodia Agree to Unconditional Ceasefire After 5 Days of Fighting

Above: Malaysia's Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim (C), Cambodia's Prime Minister Hun Manet (L), and Thailand's acting Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai (R) after ceasefire talks in Putrajaya on July 28, 2025. Image copyright: Mohd Rasfan/Pool/AFP/Getty Images

The Spin

TheThis ceasefire merelyrepresents pausesa ancrucial unresolveddiplomatic territorialvictory disputethat withoutprevents addressingfurther underlyingcivilian sovereigntycasualties issuesand thatregional sparked the conflictdestabilization. CambodiaTrump's usedecisive ofintervention, rocketthreatening launchersto againsthalt Thaitrade civiliansnegotiations andunless continuedfighting artillerystopped, exchangesforced evenboth duringnations peaceto talksprioritize revealpeace deepover mistrustterritorial between the armiesdisputes. WithoutThe concretemultilateral borderapproach demarcationinvolving agreementsASEAN, thisthe temporaryU.S., truceand risksChina collapsingdemonstrates onceeffective international pressurecooperation subsidesin conflict resolution.

The ceasefire merely pauses an unresolved territorial dispute without addressing the underlying sovereignty issues that sparked the conflict. Cambodia's use of rocket launchers against Thai civilians and continued artillery exchanges even during peace talks reveal deep mistrust between the armies. Without concrete border demarcation agreements, this temporary truce risks collapsing once international pressure subsides.

Metaculus Prediction

There's a 7% chance that Thailand will experience a military coup before September 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


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