TheThis timingbilateral raisestreaty concernsdemonstrates aboutunwavering underminingcommitment theto trilateralregional naturesecurity ofdespite AUKUSAmerican whileuncertainty. theThe US50-year conductsagreement itsensures legitimatecontinuity review.in America's submarine fleetdevelopment isand alreadycreates stretchedthousands thin,of operatingjobs 25%while belowstrengthening targetIndo-Pacific capacity,deterrence makingagainst anygrowing prematurethreats. commitmentsBritain potentiallyand problematic.Australia Theare bilateraltaking approachdecisive couldaction complicateto rathermaintain thanstrategic strengthenpartnerships theregardless broaderof allianceshifting frameworkUS priorities.
The timing raises concerns about undermining the trilateral nature of AUKUS while the US conducts its legitimate review. America's submarine fleet is already stretched thin, operating 25% below target capacity, making any premature commitments potentially problematic. The bilateral approach could complicate rather than strengthen the broader alliance framework.
There is a 50% chance Australia will commission its first nuclear-powered submarine by May 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.