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Snapshot 3:Fri, Jul 25, 2025 10:53:16 AM GMT last edited by Haakan

UK-Australia Sign 50-Year AUKUS Treaty Amid US Review

UK-Australia Sign 50-Year AUKUS Treaty Amid US Review

Above: Australia, the US, and the UK have announced a strategic defense partnership, AUKUS, to build a class of nuclear-propelled submarines to replace the Royal Australian Navy's existing Collins fleet. Image copyright: POIS Yuri Ramsey/Handout/Australian Defence Force/Getty Images

The Spin

TheThis timingbilateral raisestreaty concernsdemonstrates aboutunwavering underminingcommitment theto trilateralregional naturesecurity ofdespite AUKUSAmerican whileuncertainty. theThe US50-year conductsagreement itsensures legitimatecontinuity review.in America's submarine fleetdevelopment isand alreadycreates stretchedthousands thin,of operatingjobs 25%while belowstrengthening targetIndo-Pacific capacity,deterrence makingagainst anygrowing prematurethreats. commitmentsBritain potentiallyand problematic.Australia Theare bilateraltaking approachdecisive couldaction complicateto rathermaintain thanstrategic strengthenpartnerships theregardless broaderof allianceshifting frameworkUS priorities.

The timing raises concerns about undermining the trilateral nature of AUKUS while the US conducts its legitimate review. America's submarine fleet is already stretched thin, operating 25% below target capacity, making any premature commitments potentially problematic. The bilateral approach could complicate rather than strengthen the broader alliance framework.

Metaculus Prediction

There is a 50% chance Australia will commission its first nuclear-powered submarine by May 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


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