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Snapshot 7:Wed, Jul 23, 2025 9:14:03 PM GMT last edited by Anna-Lisa

Trump Announces $550B Trade Deal with Japan at 15% Tariff

Trump Announces $550B Trade Deal with Japan at 15% Tariff

Above: US President Donald Trump after a reception at the White House on July 22, 2025. Image copyright: Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP/Getty Images

The Spin

This historic trade deal represents a major victory for American workers and manufacturers. The 15% tariff rate, while still significant, provides much-needed relief from the devastating 25% rate that was looming. Japan's massive $550 billion investment commitment will create hundreds of thousands of jobs and revitalize American industry.

Despite the last minute boost to markets, the overall impact of Trump's whimsical approach to global tariffs remains devastating. There was never any need to create the uncertainty and instability his policies have caused, and Trump's persistent pursuit of a 'strongman' image has come at significant costs to ordinary citizens both in and outside of the U.S.

Metaculus Prediction

There is a 70% chance that customs duties revenue to the federal government will increase from $80 billion in fiscal year 2023 to at least $160 billion in fiscal year 2026 (in 2023 dollars), according to the Metaculus prediction community.


The Controversies



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