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Snapshot 10:Tue, Jul 22, 2025 9:02:45 PM GMT last edited by Nick

Trump Announces US-Philippines Trade Deal

Trump Announces US-Philippines Trade Deal

Above: U.S. President Donald Trump (right) and Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. at the White House on July 22, 2025. Image copyright: Yuri Gripas/Abaca/Bloomberg/Getty Images

The Spin

Trump's trade deals, especially with Asia-Pacific nations, are making the United States economically stronger at home and stronger against China geopolitically. As China loses its economic power over the United States, it loses its leverage when deciding whether to attack Taiwan. In just six months, Trump has repositioned America as the world's leading economic and military powerhouse.

Trump's tariffs have hidden costs, like falling imports that limit consumer choices and raise prices for goods that aren't produced in the United States. Reduced variety and quality from disrupted supply chains erode economic freedom, quietly straining budgets for those least equipped to cope. Any success can be attributed troto companies preparing short-term precautions as they await a potential policy reversal.

ThereTrump's atrade 55%deals, chanceespecially ofwith aAsia-Pacific U.S.nations, recessionare inmaking 2025,the comparedUnited toStates aeconomically 27%stronger inat 2026home and astronger 12%against inChina 2027geopolitically. As China loses its economic power over the United States, accordingit loses its leverage when deciding whether to attack Taiwan. In just six months, Trump has repositioned America as the Metaculusworld's predictionleading communityeconomic and military powerhouse.

Trump's tariffs have hidden costs, like falling imports that limit consumer choices and raise prices for goods that aren't produced in the United States. Reduced variety and quality from disrupted supply chains erode economic freedom, quietly straining budgets for those least equipped to cope. Any success can be attributed to companies preparing short-term precautions as they await a potential policy reversal.

Metaculus Prediction

There's a 55% chance that a recession will begin in the United States in 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


The Controversies



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